Dodgers, Jays Discussed Matt Kemp Trade

Shi Davidi recently reported that The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers discussed a Matt Kemp trade during the GM Meetings. Davidi claims that nothing came to fruition, but it is interesting that the Jays would be interested in Kemp’s services.

The idea isn’t believed to have gained any traction at all—Kemp has six seasons remaining on his $160-million, eight-year deal, which is beyond the Blue Jays’ maximum of five-year commitments—but that it was raised at all indicates the kind of bold thinking GMs are engaging in right now.

Davidi mentions the five year policy, but this wouldn’t be a free agent signing. What would have to be included for Kemp? Where would he play? If Kemp would have been acquired, it would likely have cost one of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, or some current MLB talent. It is a large contract, with diminishing value based on Kemp’s 2013 season, but there is tons of All-Star potential in the outfielder.

Matt Kemp

If Kemp was acquired, he would likely man LF, with Cabrera sliding to DH duties with Lind. Does this really make sense for the organization going forward? I don’t think it does, Kemp’s contract is so large and there is the possibility that he continues on this decline. Remember a slugger by the name of Vernon Wells? An outfield of Kemp, Rasmus, and Bautista does appear tantalizing, but it is probably not in the best interest of the organization to trade away prospects with high projected surplus values for expensive contracts.

Kemp posted -0.4 WAR last year, but did post 8.4 WAR in 2011. Kemp is projected for 2.5 WAR next year by Steamer and is 29 years old. We could approximately break down his next 6 years as follows: 2.5, 2.3, 2.0, 1.6, 1.1, 0.6. That’s a total of 10.1 WAR for $128M over 6 years. Assuming 1 WAR is $9M, Kemp would be a negative asset at the tune of  $37.1M!! That is not a contract that you want to touch, especially for a prospect who potentially could provide around $45M in surplus before FA.

Bird Seed: McCann, Peralta, Samardzija, Nolasco, Anthopoulos
Fielder for Kinsler, and Big Contract Hot Potato

Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

Share This Post On

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>