Dodgers, Jays Discussed Matt Kemp Trade
Shi Davidi recently reported that The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers discussed a Matt Kemp trade during the GM Meetings. Davidi claims that nothing came to fruition, but it is interesting that the Jays would be interested in Kemp’s services.
Davidi mentions the five year policy, but this wouldn’t be a free agent signing. What would have to be included for Kemp? Where would he play? If Kemp would have been acquired, it would likely have cost one of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, or some current MLB talent. It is a large contract, with diminishing value based on Kemp’s 2013 season, but there is tons of All-Star potential in the outfielder.
If Kemp was acquired, he would likely man LF, with Cabrera sliding to DH duties with Lind. Does this really make sense for the organization going forward? I don’t think it does, Kemp’s contract is so large and there is the possibility that he continues on this decline. Remember a slugger by the name of Vernon Wells? An outfield of Kemp, Rasmus, and Bautista does appear tantalizing, but it is probably not in the best interest of the organization to trade away prospects with high projected surplus values for expensive contracts.
Kemp posted -0.4 WAR last year, but did post 8.4 WAR in 2011. Kemp is projected for 2.5 WAR next year by Steamer and is 29 years old. We could approximately break down his next 6 years as follows: 2.5, 2.3, 2.0, 1.6, 1.1, 0.6. That’s a total of 10.1 WAR for $128M over 6 years. Assuming 1 WAR is $9M, Kemp would be a negative asset at the tune of $37.1M!! That is not a contract that you want to touch, especially for a prospect who potentially could provide around $45M in surplus before FA.