Offseason Power Rankings – Nov. 27

I will be doing power rankings weekly (usually Wednesday) for the whole MLB using projection systems! Here is my previous ranking article with an explanation of the process. It’s been a week, so lets see what happened!

  • Padres signed Josh Johnson
  • Royals signed Jason Vargas
  • Phillies signed Carlos Ruiz
  • Indians signed David Murphy
  • Dodgers signed Dan Haren
  • Reds signed Chris Young
  • Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta
  • Rockies signed LaTroy Hawkins
  • Twins signed Ricky Nolasco
  • Yankees signed Brian McCann
  • Tigers traded Prince Fielder to the Rangers for Ian Kinsler
  • Cardinals traded David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk

These are the transactions that occurred in the past week.  They will all affect the projections. Different players’ playing time and WAR projections will change based on the transactions that occurred. There is also a constant update of projections for each player. (Must be the reason for our new number 1 team).

Here are this week’s Power Rankings:

Rank
Prev.
Team
WAR
Wins
Losses
14Red Sox45.89369
21Tigers45.49369
33Angels41.48973
42Rangers418874
59Royals39.88775
612Cardinals39.38775
78Blue Jays39.28775
86Diamondbacks39.18775
95Athletics398775
1010Dodgers38.88676
1111Giants38.58676
127Rays38.48676
1313Indians38.18676
1415Orioles35.98379
1514Pirates348181
1617Nationals33.78181
1716Braves33.58181
1818Reds32.78082
1919Padres31.57983
2020Mariners29.77785
2121Twins297686
2223Brewers27.87587
2322Mets27.77587
2427Yankees27.37587
2524Cubs25.77389
2625Rockies25.77389
2726White Sox25.17389
2828Phillies23.57191
2929Astros22.57092
3030Marlins19.26795

Good news for Blue Jays fans! The Jays WAR went up 0.5 and they moved up a spot!

How did some of these transactions affect team wins?

  • Padres signed Josh Johnson +0 wins
  • Royals signed Jason Vargas +1 win
  • Phillies signed Carlos Ruiz -1 win
  • Indians signed David Murphy +2 wins
  • Dodgers signed Dan Haren +0 wins
  • Reds signed Chris Young +0 wins
  • Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta and acquired Bourjos +2 wins
  • Rockies signed LaTroy Hawkins -1 win
  • Twins signed Ricky Nolasco +0 wins
  • Yankees signed Brian McCann +2 wins
  • Tigers acquire Kinsler +1 win
  • Rangers acquire Fielder -1 win
  • Angels acquire Freese +0 wins

Now obviously these gains and losses in wins are not all due to the signings and trades, as some individual projections are updated and adjusted and can be the reason for some of the changes. Take the Red Sox for example; some players got bumps in projections and playing time (Xander Bogaerts, for example) that lead to the change in WAR.

Biggest winners this week based on rank changes:

Red Sox
Cardinals
Royals
Yankees

And biggest losers:

Rays
Athletics
Rangers

Here are the divisions with these projections, with playoff teams bolded:

AL East

Red Sox 93-69
Blue Jays 87-75
Rays 86-76
Orioles 83-79
Yankees 75-87

AL Central

Tigers 93-69
Royals 87-75
Indians 86-76
Twins 76-86
White Sox 73-89

AL West

Angels 89-73
Rangers 88-74
Athletics 87-75
Mariners 77-85
Astros 70-92

Three way tie for the 2nd wild card with the A’s, Royals, and Jays!

NL East

Braves 81-81
Nationals 81-81     Tie breaker for first in the East!
Mets 75-87
Phillies 71-91
Marlins 67-95

NL Central

Cardinals 87-75
Pirates 81-81
Reds 80-82
Brewers 75-87
Cubs 73-89

NL West

Diamondbacks 87-75
Dodgers 86-76
Giants 86-76
Padres 79-83
Rockies 73-89

Theoretical World Series: Red Sox vs. Cardinals with the Red Sox winning it all. Look familiar?

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Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

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4 Comments

  1. Wait, what’s is the reason the Red Sox spiked up with an increase of over 15% without making a single move? I can see some variation with projections, but they basically just had a 5+ win player added to their roster.

    Post a Reply
    • I have the same question as you, unfortunately my excel crashed when I tried to do something that used too much memory and I lost last weeks file. I think
      Boegaerts got a bump, Nava, and maybe Peavy? That’s just my memory though. It is odd.

      Post a Reply
  2. I posted this is the earlier rankings, but it didn’t get a response:

    What were the Steamer projections for the past several years immediately prior to the beginning of the season and, if possible, could you run a differential analysis v. actual results for each team (team total, not individual player component)?

    Post a Reply
    • apologize, I didn’t see that. I can check in to this when I have some time. That is if I can find previous years projections.

      Post a Reply

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