Doc Calls It Quits

One of the most dominant players of this generation walked away from the game yesterday, as Roy Halladay announced his retirement from baseball after a 16-year major-league career. As a Jays fan who discovered baseball in the late 90s, I was lucky enough to follow Halladay’s career from start to finish. For almost a decade he was the bright spot on team without much else to be excited about. No matter how bad things were with the team, you knew they had a great chance to win every fifth day when Doc took the ball.

His story is a familiar one to baseball fans in Canada. Picked 17th overall by the Jays in 1995, Halladay moved quickly through the system, establishing himself as a top prospect and bursting onto the major league scene with a near no-hitter in his 2nd major league start in the final game of the 1998 season. It would not be smooth sailing from there. After a moderately successful rookie season, Halladay’s ERA climbed to 10.64 in 2000, and he spent significant time in AAA Syracuse. His low point would come in 2001 when he was demoted to high-A Dunedin to revamp his delivery and approach under Mel Queen, who the Blue Jays convinced to come out of retirement to help their struggling young arm.

 “There’s no one I made that drastic a change to and verbally abused the way I did Doc. There aren’t many people that would have gone through what I put him through. I had to make him understand that he was very unintelligent about baseball. He had no idea about the game.” – Mel Queen

 Under Queen’s tutelage, Halladay would make short stops in AA Tennessee and AAA Syracuse before earning his way back to the major leagues for good in July of 2001. The Halladay that returned was a different beast entirely from the one that left. 4.1 fWAR in just 105.1 innings to close out the 2001 season. 7.3 fWAR in 2002. 7.4fWAR and a Cy Young award in 2003. Halladay would remain dominant for more than a decade after his return, collecting a second Cy Young after an 8.1 fWAR season for the Phillies in 2011. Overall he hangs up the cleats with a 202-105 record, a 3.38 ERA, 67 complete games, two Cy Young awards, eight all-star selections, and 67.6 fWAR. He also threw a no-hitter in his first ever postseason game, becoming just the second player in major league history to throw a no-hitter in the playoffs. If the Hall of Fame voters get it right, an induction to Cooperstown will be the final feather in Doc’s cap five years from now. The most compelling evidence for Halladay as a HOF-caliber pitcher is this table:

Pitching fWAR leaders 2001-2012

 
IP
ERA
xFIP
fWAR
Roy Halladay2456.13.073.1967.6
CC Sabathia2564.13.53.6558.8
Roy Oswalt22133.283.5748.8
Johan Santana1939.23.063.547.2
Javier Vazquez2295.14.043.7546.1
Mark Buehrle2627.23.814.2245
Randy Johnson1636.23.443.2243.9
Cliff Lee1852.23.593.8341.4
Andy Pettitte1881.23.763.6840.8
Curt Schilling13593.53.1840.1

These are the fWAR leaders in the 12-year stretch from 2001-2012, eliminating everything Doc did before reinventing himself with Mel Queen. As you can see, he contributed more wins than any other pitcher in baseball over this stretch, and nobody else was particularly close. Included in this is a remarkable 64 complete games. No other pitcher had more than 35 over that same period.

For the annoying bunch among you who are about to accuse me of cherry-picking his best years, here:

Pitching fWAR Leaders 1998-2013

 
IP
ERA
xFIP
fWAR
Randy Johnson2401.13.233.2270.5
Roy Halladay2749.13.383.2467.7
Pedro Martinez19152.893.4464.8
CC Sabathia2775.13.63.6661.5
Curt Schilling2018.13.53.1856.3
Mike Mussina2200.13.83.6953.7
Javier Vazquez28404.223.7553.7
Andy Pettitte2679.23.913.753.5
Roy Oswalt2245.13.363.5749.7
Tim Hudson2813.23.443.7748.3

This isn’t a cherry-picked list of Halladay’s best seasons. It encompasses his entire career. In the 16-year period between his debut and his retirement, the only pitcher to accrue more fWAR was The Big Unit (who will without question be a first-ballot inductee). This should really drive home the point that Halladay wasn’t merely good, he was a premier talent of his generation.

Halladay may not have the gaudy counting stats that the voters seem to like, as his 203 career victories and 2117 strikeouts are fairly pedestrian as far as HOF inductees go. He also doesn’t have a World Series ring – the price to be paid for giving his best years to an organization that couldn’t surround him with enough talent to get him into a single playoff game. What he does have is a sustained stretch as the best pitcher in the game. This may seem hyperbolic, but it isn’t. To get a feel for how Halladay stacks up against the all-time greats, I looked at all pitchers with at least 2000 career IP, and then sorted them by career fWAR/2000 innings pitched. What I got was this:

 
fWAR
IP
fWAR/2000 IP
Pedro Martinez86.82827.161.4
Roger Clemens139.94916.256.9
Randy Johnson110.34135.153.4
Curt Schilling83.5326151.2
Sandy Koufax57.92324.149.8
Roy Halladay67.72749.149.3
Lefty Grove93.33940.247.4
Bob Gibson91.43884.147.1
Johan Santana47.42025.246.8
Mike Mussina82.33562.246.2
Bret Saberhagen58.82562.245.9
Greg Maddux114.35008.145.6
Kevin Brown73.8325645.3
John Smoltz78.4347345.1
Cliff Lee46.52075.144.8
CC Sabathia61.52775.144.3
Roy Oswalt49.72245.144.3
Dazzy Vance63.62966.242.9
Walter Johnson125.95914.242.6
Bert Blyleven105.4497042.4

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not arguing that longevity isn’t important. It is. But it’s also important that people realize just how dominant Halladay was in the innings he did pitch (and 2700+ is nothing to sneeze at). Halladay compares favourably to the very best pitchers to ever play the game. His closest comparison in the above table is Sandy Koufax, who like Halladay was forced by injury to retire before seeing an erosion of skill. Koufax was inducted into Cooperstown in 1972, six years after his retirement. The voters were able to look past longevity and elect one of the most dominant pitchers the game has ever seen. Hopefully Halladay is afforded that same courtesy.

 

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Author: Chris Brassard

Chris has been a die-hard Rays fan since 2012 and a casual Jays fan since time immemorial. He likes science, Jamie Moyer, and walks on the beach. He dislikes the Philadelphia Philles.

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4 Comments

  1. Nice piece.

    The audience here obviously won’t disagree that Doc should be a shoo-in. Tango had a great blog post in July 2010, using a Bobby Orr analogy to argue that Doc was a Hall of Famer even if he never pitched another inning after that year.

    http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/reprint-roy-halladays-bobby-orr-career

    It’s frustrating that it’s even within the realm of possibilities that the all-powerful selection committee might dock Doc for not having a gaudy amount of career innings, wins, or strikeouts. I wonder how many voters would presently take Jack Morris over Doc because 254 wins > 203 and 3824 IP > 2749.

    Dan Szymborski (I think) tweeted something about this the other day, but Halladay would literally have to have the worst full pitching season in baseball history five times in a row in order to be “as good” as Jack Morris.

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    • And that Tango post was before Doc ‘s ridiculous 2011 season. Crazy.

      I’m inclined to think he’ll get in. The media seems to like him for a lot of the same reasons they love Jack Morris.

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      • On top of that, Doc’s demeanor, personality and work ethic have to play a part. Morris was a bit of a dickhead, Doc was one of the classiest and hardest working players to ever play.

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    • “Dan Szymborski (I think) tweeted something about this the other day, but Halladay would literally have to have the worst full pitching season in baseball history five times in a row in order to be “as good” as Jack Morris.”

      Haha…..now that puts some perspective on just how dominate the Doc was. He will be missed, great read Chris.

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