Offseason Power Rankings – Dec 14

This week the rankings will be a little different. On FanGraphs depth chart page, FanGraphs has taken the Steamer projections and manually fiddled with playing time a little more accurately than just binning players. This gives a very similar ranking to last week, but there are some teams who see large differences due to playing time changes. With new signings, the league WAR goes up, and therefore the replacement level team goes down. This has caused the Blue Jays (and other teams) to fall a few wins. The projections are 2.4 WAR optimistic per team, or about 5%. The big newsmakers this week were the Mariners, who signed Robinson Cano to a ginormous contract. They also added Corey Hart and Logan Morrison. Let’s see how these moves worked out:

Rank
Prev
Team
WAR
Wins
Losses
Net
11Red Sox48.193690
22Tigers44.690720
33Rays42.688740
45Royals41.987750
58Angels41.387750
67Rangers40.786760
74Athletics40.68676-2
89Cardinals40.686760
911Dodgers39.98577-1
106Blue Jays39.88577-2
1113Indians39.285771
1215Rockies38.684781
1312Giants37.383790
1423Mariners37.383796
1518Braves37.283791
1610Diamondbacks37.28379-3
1714Nationals36.582800
1816Yankees36.482800
1919Pirates36.282801
2017Orioles34.98082-1
2120Padres31.17686-2
2221Reds30.47686-1
2326Mets29.475872
2422Twins28.97488-2
2529Astros2873893
2624Brewers27.97389-1
2725Cubs27.873890
2828Phillies27.773893
2927White Sox27.373891
3030Marlins19.16498-4

The Winners

Seattle Mariners – They really shook things up with the aforementioned moves. They gained six wins this week and climbed nine spots in the rankings. Let’s hope, for their sake, that Robinson is actually the age he claims to be.

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies added a very underrated Fausto Roberto Carmona Hernandez to their rotation. Carmona, I mean Hernandez, had a 4.89 ERA and 4.63 FIP, but a sparkling 3.60 xFIP due to a terribly unlucky 20.9% HR/FB. He also had a 3.59 xxFIP and 3.95 TIPS. Is Amaro’s public announcement of evaluating pitchers by wins a cover? Or was did he just stumble onto this one? Either way the Phillies gained three wins this week.

Houston Astros – Normally signing a number 4/5 type like Scott Feldman wouldn’t do much for a team, but when he’s replacing sub-replacement pitchers, it’s a bigger gain. Feldman did have a 3.96 xFIP this year, but only a 4.30 xxFIP. The 4.30 mark is something you can likely expect in 2014. The Astros gained three wins this week as well.

New York Mets – The Mets signed the large aging wonder Bartolo Colon this week. Colon has average or below average peripherals, but keeps seeming to get the job done. The Mets gained two wins this week.

Chicago White Sox – The White Sox dealt Hector Santiago (capitalizing on a large ERA-DIPS difference) in a three way deal, and received young outfielder Adam Eaton in return. The White Sox were the clear winners in this deal and gained one win this week.

Colorado Rockies The Rockies acquired Brett Anderson this week and also signed LHP Boone Logan. Anderson has been riddled with injuries, but is a number 2 type when healthy. They gained one win this week as well.

The Losers

Miami Marlins – The Marlins parted with Logan Morrison, leaving his 1B/OF spot vacated for below replacement fillers. The Marlins also signed Furcal to play 2B, but this replaced Derek Dietrich, who would have likely provided more value. The Marlins dropped four wins in total this week.

Arizona Diamonbacks – The Backs were one of the three teams in the Trumbo deal, but they were a loser in it. They gave up Adam Eaton and Tyler Skaggs for Mark Trumbo, just to put Trumbo in the OF. In the OF, Eaton would have likely had similar value to Trumbo, at a younger age. Throw in Skaggs as well and the Snakes lost three wins.

Oakland Athletics – Normally these guys aren’t losers, and they might not really have been with the salary dump, but it hut their 2014 chances. Brett Anderson was almost given away to the Rockies and this cost the A’s around two wins.

Everyone else who didn’t keep up and saw projection losses due to replacement level changing.

Here are the divisions with these projections, with playoff teams bolded:

AL East

Red Sox 93-69
Rays 88-74
Blue Jays 85-77
Yankees 82-80
Orioles 80-82

AL Central

Tigers 90-72
Royals 87-75
Indians 85-77
Twins 74-88
White Sox 73-89

AL West

Angels 87-75
Rangers 86-76
Athletics 86-76
Mariners 83-79
Astros 73-89

NL East

Braves 83-79
Nationals 82-80
Mets 75-87
Phillies 73-89
Marlins 64-98

NL Central

Cardinals 86-76
Pirates 82-80
Reds 76-86
Brewers 73-89
Cubs 73-89

NL West

Dodgers 85-77
Rockies 84-78
Giants 83-79
Diamonbacks 83-79
Padres 76-86

Theoretical World Series: Red Sox vs. Cardinals with the Red Sox winning it all. The Dodgers are nipping at the Cardinals tails though!

Bird Seed: Infante, Trumbo, Others on the Move
Rule 5 Draft Preview: Blue Jays

Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

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