One Estimator to Rule Them All: xxFIP – Part 3

If you missed part 1 (xK%) and part 2 (xBB%) they can be found here and here. I highly recommend reading them first.

Today will be the final instalment of my 3 week look at xxFIP. I’ll talk a little about xHR/FB, and then get into some predictability results of xxFIP.

Coming up with a formula for xHR/FB was very tricky. We know HR/FB has little to no correlation year to year. It had an R^2 below 0.001 for 2012-2013. Because of this unpredictability, I needed very large sample sizes to evaluate. I took all pitchers from 2008-2012 with at least 400 IP. Every pitcher controlled rate was compared to HR/FB. The winner was Z-Contact% (0.13 R^2). This may look small, but consider how volatile HR/FB is. We know fastball velocity has a lot to do with K%, and it’s correlation is only around .20. So 0.125 for Z-Contact% was actually very unexpected and quite high.

There were no other close rate stats, and I wanted to keep xHR/FB very simple for ease. The xHR/FB formula is:

0.15*Z-Contact% + C (changes to adjust to league average HR/FB in a given year)

This xHR/FB formula regresses a lot towards the mean and is quite close to using league HR/FB. For example the leader in xHR/FB in 2013 was Max Scherzer at 9.4% (league average was 10.5%) and the next closest was Matt Harvey at 9.8%. In actual results, starters can see as low as 4.5% in a season.

I ran the predictability tests on the out of sample 2013 and the in sample 2008-2012 years. xHR/FB consistently had a lower RMSE than league average HR/FB but the difference was very small (as in .0005 small). Nevertheless, it was consistent in outperforming league HR/FB, even if only be a little. The good thing about xHR/FB is that it increases standard deviation while not losing predictability. This increase in standard deviation makes up for some of the regressing in xK% and xBB%, and brings xxFIP closer to xFIP in terms of standard deviation.

Lets plug xHR/FB into our xxFIP formula:

(0.318*BIP/P – 2.825*SwStr% – 0.834*Foul/P – 1.152*ZL/P + 1.22*OL/P)*(TBF/IP) +13*(.15*Z-Contact%+c)*FB + C

A little lengthy I know, but it’s worth it!

As Tom Tango pointed out with TIPS, testing should really be done on pitchers that change teams in order to, theoretically, take defense and framing out of the equation when testing. I will reveal the results of the out of sample (2012-2013) test with only the team changers, and then with everyone. As can be expected, the results were a little better with the team changers, since framing was mostly eliminated.

Here is the 2012-2013 data (RMSE) with team changers!

xxFIP Team Changers

Here, it is important to note that there were only 14 pitchers in the 200 IP bin, which is not a very large sample size. You shouldn’t draw a conclusion that ERA suddenly becomes awesome, because we know it doesn’t. xxFIP blows everyone out of the water at any IP! Sorry TIPS, it’s not much of a contest.

The previous table is the real sample of interest, but I will include everyone to confirm predicability with a larger sample size:

xxFIP OOS

Now here we see SIERA taking back over when we approach 200 IP. There are some sample size concerns at the higher IP (as evidenced by RMSE increasing from 188-198) so take it with a grain of salt. Another reason as to why SIERA takes over could be due to a starting pitcher remaining with the same catcher the next year, and having the same framing affect his K and BB rates. When we only looked at team changers, xxFIP was better at the same 188 IP interval. It appears that xxFIP is likely the best estimator to use for any in-season sample. It’s the most predictive AND eliminates catcher framing and umpire bias.

As noted before however, there may be some pitchers that consistently get more strikes added than others. This is because they tend to throw just out of the zone trying to get calls, and it works for them. Some of these guys might be better to use xFIP with. Mark Buehrle is Exhibit A in this case. Casey Janssen is another example.

With my xK% and xBB%, you could also sub these into SIERA, and you would likely have an estimator on par with xxFIP. The reason that I did not do this however, is  because of the complication of SIERA, and some of the inputs not being intuitive. xFIP is generally preferred over SIERA due to simplicity.

Without further adieu here are the 2013 leaders in xxFIP!

Here is everyone with at least 100 IP in 2013:

Rank
Name
IP
xxFIP
1Jose Fernandez172.23.01
2Matt Harvey178.13.02
3Anibal Sanchez1823.07
4A.J. Burnett1913.12
5Chris Sale214.13.16
6Justin Masterson1933.16
7Cliff Lee222.23.21
8Francisco Liriano1613.21
9Clayton Kershaw2363.25
10Alex Cobb143.13.26
11Yu Darvish209.23.3
12Corey Kluber147.13.31
13Cole Hamels2203.35
14Felix Hernandez204.13.39
15Madison Bumgarner201.13.39
16Stephen Strasburg1833.39
17Max Scherzer214.13.41
18Adam Wainwright241.23.46
19Hisashi Iwakuma219.23.46
20Patrick Corbin208.13.49
21Kris Medlen1973.49
22Gerrit Cole117.13.49
23Jordan Zimmermann213.13.51
24Scott Kazmir1583.51
25Samuel Deduno1083.52
26Homer Bailey2093.54
27Garrett Richards1453.54
28Tyson Ross1253.54
29Tim Lincecum197.23.55
30Jeff Samardzija213.23.56
31Roberto Hernandez1513.59
32Doug Fister208.23.63
33Rick Porcello1773.63
34Justin Verlander218.13.64
35Lance Lynn201.23.65
36Zack Greinke177.23.65
37Mat Latos210.23.66
38Julio Teheran185.23.67
39Clay Buchholz108.13.67
40John Lackey189.13.68
41Charlie Morton1163.69
42Tony Cingrani104.23.69
43Ricky Nolasco199.13.7
44Dallas Keuchel153.23.72
45Gio Gonzalez195.23.74
46Hyun-Jin Ryu1923.74
47Andrew Cashner1753.77
48Henderson Alvarez102.23.77
49Ubaldo Jimenez182.23.78
50Derek Holland2133.79
51Ervin Santana2113.79
52Jon Niese1433.79
53David Price186.23.81
54Shelby Miller173.13.82
55Brandon McCarthy1353.82
56Ivan Nova139.13.84
57Tim Hudson131.13.84
58CC Sabathia2113.85
59Matt Garza155.13.85
60Jorge de la Rosa167.23.89
61Zack Wheeler1003.9
62Paul Maholm1533.91
63R.A. Dickey224.23.93
64James Shields228.23.94
65Mike Minor204.23.94
66Dillon Gee1993.94
67Chris Capuano105.23.95
68Jhoulys Chacin197.13.96
69Ian Kennedy181.13.96
70Chris Archer128.23.97
71Chris Tillman206.13.99
72Tyler Chatwood111.14
73Nathan Eovaldi106.14.01
74Carlos Villanueva128.24.03
75Wade Miley202.24.05
76Hiroki Kuroda201.14.05
77Andy Pettitte185.14.05
78Tom Koehler1434.05
79Edinson Volquez170.14.06
80Juan Nicasio157.24.06
81Hector Santiago1494.06
82Martin Perez124.14.06
83Edwin Jackson175.14.07
84Felix Doubront162.14.07
85Dan Straily152.14.07
86C.J. Wilson212.14.09
87Bartolo Colon190.14.1
88Bud Norris176.24.1
89Jon Lester213.14.12
90Matt Cain184.14.12
91Jerome Williams169.14.13
92John Danks138.14.13
93Jose Quintana2004.14
94Miguel Gonzalez171.14.14
95Trevor Cahill146.24.15
96Wade Davis135.14.15
97Joe Blanton132.24.15
98Ryan Dempster171.14.16
99Bronson Arroyo2024.17
100Randall Delgado116.14.18
101Mike Leake192.14.21
102Marco Estrada1284.21
103Jonathan Pettibone100.14.22
104Wei-Yin Chen1374.23
105Joe Kelly1244.23
106Dan Haren169.24.24
107Alexi Ogando104.14.24
108Jeff Locke166.14.25
109Matt Moore150.14.25
110Phil Hughes145.24.26
111Wily Peralta183.14.27
112Erik Bedard1514.27
113Kyle Kendrick1824.28
114Travis Wood2004.3
115Scott Feldman181.24.3
116Jason Vargas1504.31
117Jeremy Hefner130.24.34
118Jacob Turner1184.38
119Jake Peavy144.24.39
120Esmil Rogers137.24.39
121Jeremy Hellickson1744.4
122Jordan Lyles141.24.4
123Jarrod Parker1974.41
124Yovani Gallardo180.24.41
125A.J. Griffin2004.44
126Jered Weaver154.14.44
127Zach McAllister134.14.46
128Kyle Lohse198.24.48
129Kevin Correia185.14.49
130Jason Hammel139.14.51
131Bruce Chen1214.51
132Mark Buehrle203.24.57
133Joe Saunders1834.63
134Tommy Milone156.14.63
135Aaron Harang143.14.65
136Ryan Vogelsong103.24.65
137Mike Pelfrey152.24.7
138Jeremy Guthrie211.24.71
139Barry Zito133.14.71
140Eric Stults203.24.73
141Jason Marquis117.24.77
142Jake Westbrook116.24.78
143Scott Diamond1314.8
144Lucas Harrell153.24.95
145Dylan Axelrod128.15.08

Here is everyone with 40-100 IP:

Rank
Name
IP
xxFIP
1Koji Uehara74.12.12
2Aroldis Chapman63.22.15
3Greg Holland672.26
4Kenley Jansen76.22.42
5Craig Kimbrel672.53
6Trevor Rosenthal75.12.54
7Glen Perkins62.22.61
8Ernesto Frieri68.22.65
9Al Alburquerque492.68
10Danny Salazar522.72
11Neal Cotts572.75
12Mark Melancon712.78
13Kelvin Herrera58.12.78
14Jason Grilli502.79
15Nate Jones782.81
16Fernando Rodney66.22.83
17Chad Qualls622.84
18Matt Belisle732.88
19Casey Fien622.9
20Paco Rodriguez54.12.92
21Robbie Ross62.12.93
22Danny Farquhar55.22.96
23Dane de la Rosa72.12.97
24Ronald Belisario683.03
25Seth Maness623.04
26Pedro Strop57.13.04
27Manny Parra463.05
28Steve Delabar58.23.06
29Jake McGee62.23.07
30Oliver Perez533.07
31Johnny Cueto60.23.1
32Nick Vincent46.13.1
33Brett Cecil60.23.11
34Luke Gregerson66.13.12
35Bobby Parnell503.13
36David Carpenter65.23.14
37Charlie Furbush653.16
38Scott Rice513.17
39Josh Outman543.19
40Luke Hochevar70.13.2
41Joaquin Benoit673.2
42Adam Ottavino78.13.22
43Jared Burton663.22
44Aaron Loup69.13.23
45LaTroy Hawkins70.23.25
46Sean Doolittle693.25
47Bryan Shaw753.28
48Brad Ziegler733.28
49Jim Henderson603.29
50Craig Stammen81.23.3
51Mike Dunn67.23.3
52Alex Torres583.31
53Junichi Tazawa68.13.33
54Edward Mujica64.23.33
55Carter Capps593.33
56Steve Cishek69.23.34
57Ryan Cook67.13.34
58Justin De Fratus46.23.37
59Brandon Kintzler773.39
60Rex Brothers67.13.39
61Carlos Marmol493.39
62Alex Wood77.23.4
63Mariano Rivera643.4
64Taylor Jordan51.23.4
65Brett Anderson44.23.4
66Wilton Lopez75.13.42
67Dale Thayer653.42
68Jaime Garcia55.13.42
69Will Harris52.23.42
70Brian Matusz513.42
71Francisco Rodriguez46.23.42
72Sergio Romo60.13.43
73David Robertson66.13.45
74Joe Nathan64.23.45
75Darren O'Day623.45
76Logan Ondrusek553.46
77Justin Wilson73.23.47
78Tony Watson71.23.47
79Yusmeiro Petit483.47
80Tim Stauffer69.23.49
81David Hernandez62.13.49
82Sonny Gray643.5
83A.J. Ramos803.52
84Scott Downs43.13.53
85Jordan Walden473.54
86Michael Wacha64.23.55
87Brian Duensing613.55
88Tyler Clippard713.57
89Jim Johnson70.13.58
90Wesley Wright53.23.58
91Travis Blackley50.13.58
92Troy Patton563.59
93Tanner Roark53.23.59
94Drew Storen61.23.63
95Drew Smyly763.64
96Matt Lindstrom60.23.64
97Tom Wilhelmsen593.64
98Antonio Bastardo42.23.64
99Cody Allen70.13.65
100Yoervis Medina683.65
101Blake Parker46.13.66
102Ryan Webb80.13.67
103Bryan Morris653.67
104Jesse Chavez57.13.67
105Tanner Scheppers76.23.68
106Kevin Gausman47.23.68
107Brandon Workman41.23.68
108Tommy Hunter86.13.7
109Carlos Torres86.13.71
110Addison Reed71.13.71
111Sam LeCure613.71
112Jason Frasor493.71
113Joe Smith633.72
114Joe Ortiz44.23.72
115Anthony Bass423.72
116Aaron Crow483.73
117Carlos Carrasco46.23.73
118Jamey Wright703.75
119Matt Albers633.75
120Josh Beckett43.13.75
121Heath Bell65.23.76
122Hector Rondon54.23.76
123Chris Perez543.76
124T.J. McFarland74.23.77
125Shawn Kelley53.13.78
126Santiago Casilla503.78
127Josh Collmenter923.81
128Grant Balfour62.23.81
129George Kontos55.13.81
130Jeanmar Gomez80.23.82
131John Axford653.83
132Casey Janssen52.23.83
133Tom Gorzelanny85.13.84
134Stephen Fife58.13.84
135Alfredo Simon87.23.85
136Adam Warren773.85
137Joel Peralta71.13.85
138J.P. Howell623.9
139Nick Tepesch933.92
140Brandon League54.13.92
141Tim Collins53.13.92
142Matt Thornton43.13.92
143Sandy Rosario41.23.92
144Jake Arrieta75.13.93
145Joba Chamberlain423.93
146Preston Claiborne50.13.94
147Pat Neshek40.13.94
148Vin Mazzaro73.23.95
149Michael Kohn533.96
150Jose Cisnero43.23.96
151Chad Gaudin973.99
152J.J. Hoover663.99
153Luis Avilan653.99
154Tyler Lyons533.99
155Jonathan Papelbon61.24.01
156Jeff Francis70.14.02
157Jose Veras62.24.03
158Ross Ohlendorf60.14.03
159Caleb Thielbar464.05
160Josh Johnson81.14.07
161Anthony Swarzak964.08
162Anthony Varvaro73.14.08
163Erasmo Ramirez72.14.09
164Cesar Ramos67.14.09
165Philip Humber54.24.09
166Michael Gonzalez504.09
167Shaun Marcum78.14.11
168Alfredo Figaro744.11
169Darren Oliver494.11
170Rafael Soriano66.24.13
171Freddy Garcia80.14.14
172Matt Guerrier42.24.14
173Dan Jennings40.24.14
174Jose Mijares494.15
175Juan Gutierrez55.14.16
176James Russell52.24.16
177Manny Corpas41.24.16
178Todd Redmond774.21
179Chris Rusin66.14.23
180Ross Wolf47.24.24
181Huston Street56.24.25
182Burke Badenhop62.14.27
183Chad Bettis44.24.29
184Brandon Maurer904.3
185Kevin Slowey924.31
186Ross Detwiler71.14.31
187Jarred Cosart604.31
188Edgmer Escalona464.31
189Brett Oberholtzer71.24.34
190Scott Atchison45.14.34
191David Phelps86.24.35
192Andrew Albers604.36
193John Lannan74.14.4
194Roy Halladay624.42
195Donovan Hand68.14.43
196Josh Roenicke624.43
197Robbie Erlin54.24.43
198Zach Britton404.43
199Ryan Pressly76.24.44
200Clayton Richard52.24.45
201Craig Breslow59.24.47
202Jerry Blevins604.48
203Alex Sanabia55.14.48
204J.A. Happ92.24.5
205Ethan Martin404.51
206Tyler Thornburg66.24.53
207Liam Hendriks47.14.53
208Wandy Rodriguez62.24.56
209Wade LeBlanc554.58
210Justin Grimm984.59
211Jon Garland684.59
212Kevin Gregg624.62
213Brandon Morrow54.14.69
214Luis Mendoza944.72
215Kyle Gibson514.72
216Brad Peacock83.14.75
217Tommy Hanson734.76
218Vance Worley48.24.77
219Andre Rienzo564.84
220Tyler Cloyd60.14.87
221Jeremy Bonderman555.11
222Pedro Hernandez56.25.23
223Paul Clemens73.15.3

And here is everyone! You can search for any pitcher you want!

Rank
Name
IP
xxFIP
1John McDonald0.1-7.55
2Logan Kensing0.20.37
3Jeremy Jeffress10.11.81
4Cesar Cabral3.21.86
5Steven Ames41.89
6Andrew Miller30.21.9
7Cody Eppley1.21.9
8Koji Uehara74.12.12
9Aroldis Chapman63.22.15
10Heath Hembree7.22.15
11Tyler Robertson12.23
12Greg Holland672.26
13Luis Perez52.33
14Victor Marte32.41
15Kenley Jansen76.22.42
16Matt Daley62.49
17Jake Diekman38.12.51
18Craig Kimbrel672.53
19Trevor Rosenthal75.12.54
20Louis Coleman29.22.59
21Glen Perkins62.22.61
22Ernesto Frieri68.22.65
23Al Alburquerque492.68
24Jenrry Mejia27.12.68
25Mickey Storey42.69
26Chance Ruffin9.22.71
27Danny Salazar522.72
28Neal Cotts572.75
29Erik Davis8.22.76
30Sergio Santos25.22.77
31Mark Melancon712.78
32Kelvin Herrera58.12.78
33Dellin Betances52.78
34Jason Grilli502.79
35Nate Jones782.81
36Fernando Rodney66.22.83
37Joe Paterson2.12.83
38Chad Qualls622.84
39Cristhian Martinez2.12.86
40Matt Belisle732.88
41Casey Fien622.9
42Paco Rodriguez54.12.92
43Robbie Ross62.12.93
44Will Smith33.12.93
45David Hale112.95
46Jairo Asencio2.12.95
47Danny Farquhar55.22.96
48Dane de la Rosa72.12.97
49Chaz Roe22.12.97
50Matt Harrison10.22.98
51Jose Fernandez172.23.01
52Matt Harvey178.13.02
53Ronald Belisario683.03
54Seth Maness623.04
55Pedro Strop57.13.04
56Bruce Rondon28.23.04
57Manny Parra463.05
58Steve Delabar58.23.06
59Sean Marshall10.13.06
60Anibal Sanchez1823.07
61Jake McGee62.23.07
62Oliver Perez533.07
63Joakim Soria23.23.07
64Zach Putnam3.13.07
65Johnny Cueto60.23.1
66Nick Vincent46.13.1
67Javier Lopez39.13.1
68Randy Choate35.13.1
69Brandon Gomes19.13.1
70Brett Cecil60.23.11
71A.J. Burnett1913.12
72Luke Gregerson66.13.12
73Bobby Parnell503.13
74Kevin Siegrist39.23.13
75Javy Guerra10.23.13
76David Carpenter65.23.14
77Pedro Figueroa33.14
78Chris Sale214.13.16
79Justin Masterson1933.16
80Charlie Furbush653.16
81Scott Rice513.17
82Josh Outman543.19
83Luke Hochevar70.13.2
84Joaquin Benoit673.2
85Cliff Lee222.23.21
86Francisco Liriano1613.21
87Adam Ottavino78.13.22
88Jared Burton663.22
89Aaron Loup69.13.23
90Clayton Kershaw2363.25
91LaTroy Hawkins70.23.25
92Sean Doolittle693.25
93Chang-Yong Lim53.25
94Alex Cobb143.13.26
95Chris Withrow34.23.27
96Bryan Shaw753.28
97Brad Ziegler733.28
98Jim Henderson603.29
99Boone Logan393.29
100Robert Coello173.29
101Kyuji Fujikawa123.29
102Yu Darvish209.23.3
103Craig Stammen81.23.3
104Mike Dunn67.23.3
105Corey Kluber147.13.31
106Alex Torres583.31
107Brad Boxberger223.31
108Josh Stinson173.31
109Ryan Raburn13.31
110Junichi Tazawa68.13.33
111Edward Mujica64.23.33
112Carter Capps593.33
113Gavin Floyd24.13.33
114Duane Below2.23.33
115Steve Cishek69.23.34
116Ryan Cook67.13.34
117Burch Smith36.13.34
118Josh Zeid27.23.34
119Cole Hamels2203.35
120Daniel Webb11.13.35
121Juan Perez31.23.36
122Carlos Martinez28.13.36
123Justin De Fratus46.23.37
124Jimmy Nelson103.38
125Felix Hernandez204.13.39
126Madison Bumgarner201.13.39
127Stephen Strasburg1833.39
128Brandon Kintzler773.39
129Rex Brothers67.13.39
130Carlos Marmol493.39
131Alex Wood77.23.4
132Mariano Rivera643.4
133Taylor Jordan51.23.4
134Brett Anderson44.23.4
135James Paxton243.4
136Max Scherzer214.13.41
137Wilton Lopez75.13.42
138Dale Thayer653.42
139Jaime Garcia55.13.42
140Will Harris52.23.42
141Brian Matusz513.42
142Francisco Rodriguez46.23.42
143Sergio Romo60.13.43
144Joe Thatcher39.13.43
145David Robertson66.13.45
146Joe Nathan64.23.45
147Darren O'Day623.45
148Matt Shoemaker53.45
149Adam Wainwright241.23.46
150Hisashi Iwakuma219.23.46
151Logan Ondrusek553.46
152Justin Wilson73.23.47
153Tony Watson71.23.47
154Yusmeiro Petit483.47
155Scott Barnes8.23.47
156Patrick Corbin208.13.49
157Kris Medlen1973.49
158Gerrit Cole117.13.49
159Tim Stauffer69.23.49
160David Hernandez62.13.49
161Sonny Gray643.5
162Jesse Crain36.23.5
163Jordan Zimmermann213.13.51
164Scott Kazmir1583.51
165Rich Hill38.23.51
166Neil Wagner383.51
167Mike Adams253.51
168Samuel Deduno1083.52
169A.J. Ramos803.52
170Eduardo Sanchez6.13.52
171Scott Downs43.13.53
172Homer Bailey2093.54
173Garrett Richards1453.54
174Tyson Ross1253.54
175Jordan Walden473.54
176Jake Petricka19.13.54
177Tim Lincecum197.23.55
178Michael Wacha64.23.55
179Brian Duensing613.55
180Stephen Pryor7.13.55
181Jeff Samardzija213.23.56
182Phil Coke38.13.56
183Tyler Clippard713.57
184Luis Ayala333.57
185Jim Johnson70.13.58
186Wesley Wright53.23.58
187Travis Blackley50.13.58
188Andrew Bailey28.23.58
189Sean Burnett9.23.58
190Roberto Hernandez1513.59
191Troy Patton563.59
192Tanner Roark53.23.59
193Marc Rzepczynski30.23.59
194Cory Gearrin313.61
195Phillippe Aumont19.13.61
196Drake Britton213.62
197Jose De La Torre11.13.62
198Doug Fister208.23.63
199Rick Porcello1773.63
200Drew Storen61.23.63
201Greg Burke31.23.63
202Justin Verlander218.13.64
203Drew Smyly763.64
204Matt Lindstrom60.23.64
205Tom Wilhelmsen593.64
206Antonio Bastardo42.23.64
207Lance Lynn201.23.65
208Zack Greinke177.23.65
209Cody Allen70.13.65
210Yoervis Medina683.65
211Dan Otero393.65
212Roy Oswalt32.13.65
213Brooks Raley143.65
214Brian Wilson13.23.65
215Mat Latos210.23.66
216Blake Parker46.13.66
217Mike Kickham28.13.66
218Jake Dunning25.13.66
219Drew Pomeranz21.23.66
220Julio Teheran185.23.67
221Clay Buchholz108.13.67
222Ryan Webb80.13.67
223Bryan Morris653.67
224Jesse Chavez57.13.67
225John Lackey189.13.68
226Tanner Scheppers76.23.68
227Kevin Gausman47.23.68
228Brandon Workman41.23.68
229Charlie Morton1163.69
230Tony Cingrani104.23.69
231Ricky Nolasco199.13.7
232Tommy Hunter86.13.7
233Jamey Carroll13.7
234Carlos Torres86.13.71
235Addison Reed71.13.71
236Sam LeCure613.71
237Jason Frasor493.71
238Dallas Keuchel153.23.72
239Joe Smith633.72
240Joe Ortiz44.23.72
241Anthony Bass423.72
242Phil Irwin4.23.72
243Aaron Crow483.73
244Carlos Carrasco46.23.73
245Chris Hatcher8.23.73
246Gio Gonzalez195.23.74
247Hyun-Jin Ryu1923.74
248Vinnie Pestano35.13.74
249Jamey Wright703.75
250Matt Albers633.75
251Josh Beckett43.13.75
252Heath Bell65.23.76
253Hector Rondon54.23.76
254Chris Perez543.76
255David Huff37.23.76
256Andrew Cashner1753.77
257Henderson Alvarez102.23.77
258T.J. McFarland74.23.77
259J.J. Putz34.13.77
260Ubaldo Jimenez182.23.78
261Shawn Kelley53.13.78
262Santiago Casilla503.78
263Steve Johnson15.23.78
264Stolmy Pimentel9.13.78
265Derek Holland2133.79
266Ervin Santana2113.79
267Jon Niese1433.79
268David Aardsma39.23.79
269Rob Scahill33.13.79
270Jon Rauch16.23.79
271Xavier Cedeno12.13.79
272Tyler Skaggs38.23.8
273Pedro Feliciano11.13.8
274David Price186.23.81
275Josh Collmenter923.81
276Grant Balfour62.23.81
277George Kontos55.13.81
278Shelby Miller173.13.82
279Brandon McCarthy1353.82
280Jeanmar Gomez80.23.82
281John Axford653.83
282Casey Janssen52.23.83
283Gonzalez Germen34.13.83
284Ivan Nova139.13.84
285Tim Hudson131.13.84
286Tom Gorzelanny85.13.84
287Stephen Fife58.13.84
288Kyle Farnsworth38.13.84
289Nick Hagadone31.13.84
290CC Sabathia2113.85
291Matt Garza155.13.85
292Alfredo Simon87.23.85
293Adam Warren773.85
294Joel Peralta71.13.85
295Darin Downs35.13.85
296Thad Weber153.86
297Kris Johnson10.13.86
298Chris Leroux43.86
299Fernando Abad37.23.88
300Jared Hughes323.88
301Taijuan Walker153.88
302Jorge de la Rosa167.23.89
303Jeremy Affeldt33.23.89
304Matt Reynolds27.13.89
305Zack Wheeler1003.9
306J.P. Howell623.9
307Evan Reed23.13.9
308Paul Maholm1533.91
309Dustin McGowan25.23.91
310Ryan Reid113.91
311Nick Tepesch933.92
312Brandon League54.13.92
313Tim Collins53.13.92
314Matt Thornton43.13.92
315Sandy Rosario41.23.92
316Luis Garcia31.13.92
317Jonathan Broxton30.23.92
318Brandon Cumpton30.23.92
319Michael Kirkman223.92
320Alex Colome163.92
321Bobby LaFromboise10.23.92
322R.A. Dickey224.23.93
323Jake Arrieta75.13.93
324Joba Chamberlain423.93
325Brandon Beachy303.93
326James Shields228.23.94
327Mike Minor204.23.94
328Dillon Gee1993.94
329Preston Claiborne50.13.94
330Pat Neshek40.13.94
331Rubby de la Rosa11.13.94
332Chris Capuano105.23.95
333Vin Mazzaro73.23.95
334Brian Omogrosso16.13.95
335Blake Wood1.13.95
336Jhoulys Chacin197.13.96
337Ian Kennedy181.13.96
338Michael Kohn533.96
339Jose Cisnero43.23.96
340Danny Duffy24.13.96
341Chris Archer128.23.97
342Luke Putkonen29.23.97
343Ian Krol27.13.98
344Chris Tillman206.13.99
345Chad Gaudin973.99
346J.J. Hoover663.99
347Luis Avilan653.99
348Tyler Lyons533.99
349Mitchell Boggs23.13.99
350Chia-Jen Lo19.13.99
351Tyler Chatwood111.14
352Nathan Eovaldi106.14.01
353Jonathan Papelbon61.24.01
354Jeff Francis70.14.02
355Jose Alvarez38.24.02
356Mauricio Robles4.24.02
357Carlos Villanueva128.24.03
358Jose Veras62.24.03
359Ross Ohlendorf60.14.03
360Collin McHugh264.04
361Wade Miley202.24.05
362Hiroki Kuroda201.14.05
363Andy Pettitte185.14.05
364Tom Koehler1434.05
365Caleb Thielbar464.05
366Blake Beavan39.24.05
367Lucas Luetge374.05
368Edinson Volquez170.14.06
369Juan Nicasio157.24.06
370Hector Santiago1494.06
371Martin Perez124.14.06
372Edwin Jackson175.14.07
373Felix Doubront162.14.07
374Dan Straily152.14.07
375Josh Johnson81.14.07
376Franklin Morales25.14.07
377Brian Flynn184.07
378Anthony Swarzak964.08
379Anthony Varvaro73.14.08
380Michael Tonkin11.14.08
381C.J. Wilson212.14.09
382Erasmo Ramirez72.14.09
383Cesar Ramos67.14.09
384Philip Humber54.24.09
385Michael Gonzalez504.09
386Bartolo Colon190.14.1
387Bud Norris176.24.1
388Eric O'Flaherty184.1
389Arquimedes Caminero134.1
390Shaun Marcum78.14.11
391Alfredo Figaro744.11
392Darren Oliver494.11
393Raul Valdes354.11
394Donnie Veal29.14.11
395Jon Lester213.14.12
396Matt Cain184.14.12
397Hector Noesi27.14.12
398J.C. Ramirez244.12
399Jerome Williams169.14.13
400John Danks138.14.13
401Rafael Soriano66.24.13
402Jose Quintana2004.14
403Miguel Gonzalez171.14.14
404Freddy Garcia80.14.14
405Matt Guerrier42.24.14
406Dan Jennings40.24.14
407Ryan Brasier94.14
408C.C. Lee4.14.14
409Trevor Cahill146.24.15
410Wade Davis135.14.15
411Joe Blanton132.24.15
412Jose Mijares494.15
413Allen Webster30.14.15
414Ryan Dempster171.14.16
415Juan Gutierrez55.14.16
416James Russell52.24.16
417Manny Corpas41.24.16
418Sam Freeman12.14.16
419Maikel Cleto2.14.16
420Bronson Arroyo2024.17
421Randall Delgado116.14.18
422Rob Wooten27.24.19
423Rafael Betancourt28.24.2
424Mike Leake192.14.21
425Marco Estrada1284.21
426Todd Redmond774.21
427Charlie Leesman15.14.21
428Jonathan Pettibone100.14.22
429Joe Savery204.22
430Wei-Yin Chen1374.23
431Joe Kelly1244.23
432Chris Rusin66.14.23
433Dan Haren169.24.24
434Alexi Ogando104.14.24
435Ross Wolf47.24.24
436Josh Fields384.24
437Zach Duke31.14.24
438Jeff Locke166.14.25
439Matt Moore150.14.25
440Huston Street56.24.25
441Kevin Jepsen364.25
442Michael Roth204.25
443Phil Hughes145.24.26
444Ramon Troncoso304.26
445Vic Black174.26
446Wily Peralta183.14.27
447Erik Bedard1514.27
448Burke Badenhop62.14.27
449Jeff Manship30.24.27
450Chad Billingsley124.27
451Kyle Kendrick1824.28
452Chad Durbin164.28
453Chad Bettis44.24.29
454Brayan Villarreal4.14.29
455Travis Wood2004.3
456Scott Feldman181.24.3
457Brandon Maurer904.3
458Rafael Dolis54.3
459Jason Vargas1504.31
460Kevin Slowey924.31
461Ross Detwiler71.14.31
462Jarred Cosart604.31
463Edgmer Escalona464.31
464Frank Francisco6.14.31
465Joe Martinez54.31
466Michael Bowden37.24.32
467Buddy Boshers15.14.33
468Justin Germano24.33
469Jeremy Hefner130.24.34
470Brett Oberholtzer71.24.34
471Scott Atchison45.14.34
472David Phelps86.24.35
473Jose Valverde19.14.35
474Andrew Albers604.36
475Brad Brach314.36
476Ted Lilly234.36
477Josh Tomlin24.36
478Daisuke Matsuzaka38.24.37
479Chad Jenkins33.14.37
480Josh Edgin28.24.37
481Alberto Cabrera64.37
482Jacob Turner1184.38
483John Gast12.14.38
484Jake Peavy144.24.39
485Esmil Rogers137.24.39
486John Maine7.14.39
487Jeremy Hellickson1744.4
488Jordan Lyles141.24.4
489John Lannan74.14.4
490B.J. Rosenberg19.24.4
491Eury De la Rosa14.24.4
492Jarrod Parker1974.41
493Yovani Gallardo180.24.41
494David Purcey25.14.41
495Matt Langwell144.41
496Tom Layne8.24.41
497Roy Halladay624.42
498Jose Ortega11.24.42
499Donovan Hand68.14.43
500Josh Roenicke624.43
501Robbie Erlin54.24.43
502Zach Britton404.43
503Hector Ambriz36.14.43
504Josh Lindblom31.14.43
505Clayton Mortensen30.14.43
506A.J. Griffin2004.44
507Jered Weaver154.14.44
508Ryan Pressly76.24.44
509Matt Magill27.24.44
510Clayton Richard52.24.45
511Brad Hand20.24.45
512Yordano Ventura15.14.45
513Zach McAllister134.14.46
514Ryan Mattheus35.14.46
515Nick Maronde5.14.46
516Craig Breslow59.24.47
517Josh Lueke21.14.47
518Kyle Lohse198.24.48
519Jerry Blevins604.48
520Alex Sanabia55.14.48
521Fernando Salas284.48
522Kevin Correia185.14.49
523Cory Rasmus21.24.49
524J.A. Happ92.24.5
525Jason Hammel139.14.51
526Bruce Chen1214.51
527Ethan Martin404.51
528Shawn Camp234.51
529Jose Contreras54.51
530Chien-Ming Wang274.52
531Tyler Thornburg66.24.53
532Liam Hendriks47.14.53
533Donnie Joseph5.24.53
534Zach Miner28.24.55
535Kevin Chapman20.14.55
536Michael Blazek17.14.55
537Simon Castro6.24.55
538Wandy Rodriguez62.24.56
539Alfredo Aceves374.56
540Kameron Loe26.24.56
541Shairon Martis9.24.56
542Mark Buehrle203.24.57
543Derek Lowe134.57
544Wade LeBlanc554.58
545Justin Grimm984.59
546Jon Garland684.59
547Brandon Lyon34.14.59
548Erik Johnson27.24.59
549Michael Stutes17.24.59
550Onelki Garcia1.14.59
551Jake Odorizzi29.24.6
552Aaron Laffey12.24.6
553Hisanori Takahashi34.6
554Chris Narveson24.6
555Kevin Gregg624.62
556Curtis Partch23.14.62
557Jonathan Sanchez13.24.62
558Joe Saunders1834.63
559Tommy Milone156.14.63
560Johnny Hellweg30.24.64
561Aaron Harang143.14.65
562Ryan Vogelsong103.24.65
563Jorge De Leon104.65
564Neftali Feliz4.24.65
565Rhiner Cruz21.14.68
566Brandon Morrow54.14.69
567Tony Sipp37.24.69
568Octavio Dotel4.24.69
569Mike Pelfrey152.24.7
570Jeremy Guthrie211.24.71
571Barry Zito133.14.71
572P.J. Walters39.14.71
573Mike Zagurski6.14.71
574Luis Mendoza944.72
575Kyle Gibson514.72
576Francisley Bueno8.14.72
577Eric Stults203.24.73
578Mike Fiers22.14.73
579Zeke Spruill11.14.74
580Brad Peacock83.14.75
581Tommy Hanson734.76
582Jason Marquis117.24.77
583Vance Worley48.24.77
584Jake Westbrook116.24.78
585Scott Diamond1314.8
586Alex Wilson27.24.8
587Chris Dwyer34.8
588Chris Resop184.81
589Andre Rienzo564.84
590Brad Lincoln31.24.84
591Scott Baker154.84
592Enny Romero4.24.84
593Jeurys Familia10.24.85
594Henry Rodriguez224.86
595Tyler Cloyd60.14.87
596Guillermo Moscoso304.87
597Evan Scribner26.24.88
598Sam Dyson114.9
599Hideki Okajima44.9
600Charles Brewer64.92
601Edgar Gonzalez184.93
602Zach Phillips1.24.93
603Cesar Jimenez174.94
604Lucas Harrell153.24.95
605James McDonald29.24.95
606Sean O'Sullivan255.01
607Hiram Burgos29.15.02
608Pedro Beato105.02
609Chris Bootcheck15.04
610Jeremy Horst265.05
611Brett Marshall125.07
612Ricky Romero7.15.07
613Dylan Axelrod128.15.08
614Deunte Heath7.25.09
615Kyle Drabek2.15.1
616Jeremy Bonderman555.11
617Keith Butler205.12
618Jose Dominguez8.15.15
619Greg Reynolds29.15.16
620Cory Burns11.15.16
621Pedro Hernandez56.25.23
622Jake Elmore15.26
623Mark Lowe11.25.28
624Paul Clemens73.15.3
625Ramon Ortiz25.15.3
626Robert Carson19.25.32
627Barry Enright8.15.39
628Skip Schumaker25.39
629Vidal Nuno205.41
630Kyle McClellan9.15.42
631Ramon Ramirez5.25.42
632Josh Wall75.43
633Daniel Bard15.44
634Trevor Bauer175.46
635Chris Volstad8.15.49
636Joel Hanrahan7.15.52
637Jair Jurrjens7.15.52
638Edgar Olmos55.52
639Casper Wells1.25.52
640Peter Moylan15.15.54
641Billy Buckner17.15.59
642David Murphy15.59
643Cole DeVries155.64
644Clay Rapada25.68
645Brett Myers21.15.69
646David Martinez11.15.77
647Zac Rosscup6.25.82
648Nick Christiani45.82
649Duke Welker1.15.86
650Tim Byrdak4.25.98
651Preston Guilmet5.16.12
652Pedro Villarreal5.26.48
653Dave Bush36.97
654Alex Burnett2.17.03
655David Holmberg3.27.34
656Sean Henn2.27.48
657Daniel Stange1.27.58
658Michael Belfiore1.17.65
659Miles Mikolas1.27.95
660Eric Surkamp2.28.53
661Jim Miller1.18.69
662Zach Clark1.29.02
663Justin Freeman19.16
664Wilmer Font1.19.44
665Sean Nolin1.110.85
666Anthony Recker112.99
667Josh Harrison0.118.05
668Jeff Beliveau0.221.93
669Everett Teaford0.224.55
670Alberto Gonzalez0.124.81
671Sam Fuld0.125.45
672Yunesky Maya0.125.89
673David Carpenter0.135.18

Maybe the Blue Jays should acquire John McDonald to be our ace! ⅓ IP is a good sample size right?

jmcp1There he is!

Rangers Board The Choo Choo Train
Bird Seed: Infante, Trumbo, Others on the Move

Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

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4 Comments

  1. Chris, I really enjoyed this piece too. Thanks for posting it. Lots of hard work went into it for sure.

    I have 2 questions and a comment about it.

    The comment is just about how you referred to SIERA’s input as “not intuitive,” and I wanted to reassure you that they are. I wrote in detail about all the intuition here.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-siera-part-two-of-five-unlocking-underrated-pitching-skills/

    Ultimately, it just comes down to partial derivatives. If you can take a partial derivative, all inputs make sense.

    The first question is very important– where are you getting your fly ball numbers from? Are you using actual fly balls? It seems like you are, which would obviously not be useful in predicting player performance in advance or estimating past season talent level retrospectively either. I would develop an x(FB/BIP), if that’s not in there. My apologies if it was. Is that what you are using for 2013 testing as well? Even if you use 2008-12 out of sample, you’re boosting estimates by using the known 2013 fly balls. Again, I may be misinterpreting this.

    The second question is about how you developed your regression coefficients. Was the dependent variable the same season HR/FB (or K or BB, etc., depending on which xSTAT you were developing) or was it out of sample? Did you weight these? Did you exclude certain pitchers?

    Also, a suggestion to get a bigger sample might be this: regress the whole 2008-13 sample of pitchers, but do your tests by developing 6 sets of regression coefficients. (a) 2008-12 players to test on 2013 out of sample (b) 2008-11 & 2013 players to test on 2012 out of sample (c) 2008-10 & 2012-13 players to test on 2011 out of sample, etc.

    If you do this, you can build a bigger set of players to run the tests on, while still sticking to the out-of-sample approach (which you are right to use).

    Either way, great work. I think you’ve got something really valuable here and especially if it could be applied to young minor leaguers at some point, I could see even more value coming out of the modeling framework you’re developing!

    Post a Reply
    • Thanks for the comment Matt. I will try working to create other samples to test as you suggested.

      I did use actual fly ball numbers, similar to xFIP. Fly balls have a high correlation year to year, and I highly doubt an xFB% would be any more predictive than FB% in anything more than a handful of games. 2013 FBs were not used, so that doesn’t boost anything. 2012 FBs were used in the predictive testing against 2013.

      For xHR/FB, it was determined over the full sample (not an individual season) in order to have a larger sample size (independent variable was same sample). The sample was over 2008-2012.

      Post a Reply
      • Thanks. Okay, so it sounds like you testing out of sample is still same-year data, right? So you tested the 2013 xxFIP vs. 2013 ERA with coefficients created from previous years then, right? You should also check how well 2012 xxFIP does predicting 2013 park-adjusted ERA. If you look at xFIP and SIERA, they actually do a better job than a lot of projection systems in this right, suggesting that the underlying skills they pick up on are extremely important.

        Post a Reply
        • This particular test was 2012 estimator on 2013 ERA using coefficients determined in the previous years. The predictive power for following years is quite good for all 3 estimators.

          Post a Reply

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