One Estimator to Rule Them All: xxFIP – Part 3

Posted By Chris Carruthers on 9:00am Dec 18, 2013 | 4 comments

If you missed part 1 (xK%) and part 2 (xBB%) they can be found here and here. I highly recommend reading them first.

Today will be the final instalment of my 3 week look at xxFIP. I’ll talk a little about xHR/FB, and then get into some predictability results of xxFIP.

Coming up with a formula for xHR/FB was very tricky. We know HR/FB has little to no correlation year to year. It had an R^2 below 0.001 for 2012-2013. Because of this unpredictability, I needed very large sample sizes to evaluate. I took all pitchers from 2008-2012 with at least 400 IP. Every pitcher controlled rate was compared to HR/FB. The winner was Z-Contact% (0.13 R^2). This may look small, but consider how volatile HR/FB is. We know fastball velocity has a lot to do with K%, and it’s correlation is only around .20. So 0.125 for Z-Contact% was actually very unexpected and quite high.

There were no other close rate stats, and I wanted to keep xHR/FB very simple for ease. The xHR/FB formula is:

0.15*Z-Contact% + C (changes to adjust to league average HR/FB in a given year)

This xHR/FB formula regresses a lot towards the mean and is quite close to using league HR/FB. For example the leader in xHR/FB in 2013 was Max Scherzer at 9.4% (league average was 10.5%) and the next closest was Matt Harvey at 9.8%. In actual results, starters can see as low as 4.5% in a season.

I ran the predictability tests on the out of sample 2013 and the in sample 2008-2012 years. xHR/FB consistently had a lower RMSE than league average HR/FB but the difference was very small (as in .0005 small). Nevertheless, it was consistent in outperforming league HR/FB, even if only be a little. The good thing about xHR/FB is that it increases standard deviation while not losing predictability. This increase in standard deviation makes up for some of the regressing in xK% and xBB%, and brings xxFIP closer to xFIP in terms of standard deviation.

Lets plug xHR/FB into our xxFIP formula:

(0.318*BIP/P – 2.825*SwStr% – 0.834*Foul/P – 1.152*ZL/P + 1.22*OL/P)*(TBF/IP) +13*(.15*Z-Contact%+c)*FB + C

A little lengthy I know, but it’s worth it!

As Tom Tango pointed out with TIPS, testing should really be done on pitchers that change teams in order to, theoretically, take defense and framing out of the equation when testing. I will reveal the results of the out of sample (2012-2013) test with only the team changers, and then with everyone. As can be expected, the results were a little better with the team changers, since framing was mostly eliminated.

Here is the 2012-2013 data (RMSE) with team changers!

xxFIP Team Changers

Here, it is important to note that there were only 14 pitchers in the 200 IP bin, which is not a very large sample size. You shouldn’t draw a conclusion that ERA suddenly becomes awesome, because we know it doesn’t. xxFIP blows everyone out of the water at any IP! Sorry TIPS, it’s not much of a contest.

The previous table is the real sample of interest, but I will include everyone to confirm predicability with a larger sample size:

Now here we see SIERA taking back over when we approach 200 IP. There are some sample size concerns at the higher IP (as evidenced by RMSE increasing from 188-198) so take it with a grain of salt. Another reason as to why SIERA takes over could be due to a starting pitcher remaining with the same catcher the next year, and having the same framing affect his K and BB rates. When we only looked at team changers, xxFIP was better at the same 188 IP interval. It appears that xxFIP is likely the best estimator to use for any in-season sample. It’s the most predictive AND eliminates catcher framing and umpire bias.

As noted before however, there may be some pitchers that consistently get more strikes added than others. This is because they tend to throw just out of the zone trying to get calls, and it works for them. Some of these guys might be better to use xFIP with. Mark Buehrle is Exhibit A in this case. Casey Janssen is another example.

With my xK% and xBB%, you could also sub these into SIERA, and you would likely have an estimator on par with xxFIP. The reason that I did not do this however, is because of the complication of SIERA, and some of the inputs not being intuitive. xFIP is generally preferred over SIERA due to simplicity.

Without further adieu here are the 2013 leaders in xxFIP!

Here is everyone with at least 100 IP in 2013:

Rank	Name	IP	xxFIP
1	Jose Fernandez	172.2	3.01
2	Matt Harvey	178.1	3.02
3	Anibal Sanchez	182	3.07
4	A.J. Burnett	191	3.12
5	Chris Sale	214.1	3.16
6	Justin Masterson	193	3.16
7	Cliff Lee	222.2	3.21
8	Francisco Liriano	161	3.21
9	Clayton Kershaw	236	3.25
10	Alex Cobb	143.1	3.26
11	Yu Darvish	209.2	3.3
12	Corey Kluber	147.1	3.31
13	Cole Hamels	220	3.35
14	Felix Hernandez	204.1	3.39
15	Madison Bumgarner	201.1	3.39
16	Stephen Strasburg	183	3.39
17	Max Scherzer	214.1	3.41
18	Adam Wainwright	241.2	3.46
19	Hisashi Iwakuma	219.2	3.46
20	Patrick Corbin	208.1	3.49
21	Kris Medlen	197	3.49
22	Gerrit Cole	117.1	3.49
23	Jordan Zimmermann	213.1	3.51
24	Scott Kazmir	158	3.51
25	Samuel Deduno	108	3.52
26	Homer Bailey	209	3.54
27	Garrett Richards	145	3.54
28	Tyson Ross	125	3.54
29	Tim Lincecum	197.2	3.55
30	Jeff Samardzija	213.2	3.56
31	Roberto Hernandez	151	3.59
32	Doug Fister	208.2	3.63
33	Rick Porcello	177	3.63
34	Justin Verlander	218.1	3.64
35	Lance Lynn	201.2	3.65
36	Zack Greinke	177.2	3.65
37	Mat Latos	210.2	3.66
38	Julio Teheran	185.2	3.67
39	Clay Buchholz	108.1	3.67
40	John Lackey	189.1	3.68
41	Charlie Morton	116	3.69
42	Tony Cingrani	104.2	3.69
43	Ricky Nolasco	199.1	3.7
44	Dallas Keuchel	153.2	3.72
45	Gio Gonzalez	195.2	3.74
46	Hyun-Jin Ryu	192	3.74
47	Andrew Cashner	175	3.77
48	Henderson Alvarez	102.2	3.77
49	Ubaldo Jimenez	182.2	3.78
50	Derek Holland	213	3.79
51	Ervin Santana	211	3.79
52	Jon Niese	143	3.79
53	David Price	186.2	3.81
54	Shelby Miller	173.1	3.82
55	Brandon McCarthy	135	3.82
56	Ivan Nova	139.1	3.84
57	Tim Hudson	131.1	3.84
58	CC Sabathia	211	3.85
59	Matt Garza	155.1	3.85
60	Jorge de la Rosa	167.2	3.89
61	Zack Wheeler	100	3.9
62	Paul Maholm	153	3.91
63	R.A. Dickey	224.2	3.93
64	James Shields	228.2	3.94
65	Mike Minor	204.2	3.94
66	Dillon Gee	199	3.94
67	Chris Capuano	105.2	3.95
68	Jhoulys Chacin	197.1	3.96
69	Ian Kennedy	181.1	3.96
70	Chris Archer	128.2	3.97
71	Chris Tillman	206.1	3.99
72	Tyler Chatwood	111.1	4
73	Nathan Eovaldi	106.1	4.01
74	Carlos Villanueva	128.2	4.03
75	Wade Miley	202.2	4.05
76	Hiroki Kuroda	201.1	4.05
77	Andy Pettitte	185.1	4.05
78	Tom Koehler	143	4.05
79	Edinson Volquez	170.1	4.06
80	Juan Nicasio	157.2	4.06
81	Hector Santiago	149	4.06
82	Martin Perez	124.1	4.06
83	Edwin Jackson	175.1	4.07
84	Felix Doubront	162.1	4.07
85	Dan Straily	152.1	4.07
86	C.J. Wilson	212.1	4.09
87	Bartolo Colon	190.1	4.1
88	Bud Norris	176.2	4.1
89	Jon Lester	213.1	4.12
90	Matt Cain	184.1	4.12
91	Jerome Williams	169.1	4.13
92	John Danks	138.1	4.13
93	Jose Quintana	200	4.14
94	Miguel Gonzalez	171.1	4.14
95	Trevor Cahill	146.2	4.15
96	Wade Davis	135.1	4.15
97	Joe Blanton	132.2	4.15
98	Ryan Dempster	171.1	4.16
99	Bronson Arroyo	202	4.17
100	Randall Delgado	116.1	4.18
101	Mike Leake	192.1	4.21
102	Marco Estrada	128	4.21
103	Jonathan Pettibone	100.1	4.22
104	Wei-Yin Chen	137	4.23
105	Joe Kelly	124	4.23
106	Dan Haren	169.2	4.24
107	Alexi Ogando	104.1	4.24
108	Jeff Locke	166.1	4.25
109	Matt Moore	150.1	4.25
110	Phil Hughes	145.2	4.26
111	Wily Peralta	183.1	4.27
112	Erik Bedard	151	4.27
113	Kyle Kendrick	182	4.28
114	Travis Wood	200	4.3
115	Scott Feldman	181.2	4.3
116	Jason Vargas	150	4.31
117	Jeremy Hefner	130.2	4.34
118	Jacob Turner	118	4.38
119	Jake Peavy	144.2	4.39
120	Esmil Rogers	137.2	4.39
121	Jeremy Hellickson	174	4.4
122	Jordan Lyles	141.2	4.4
123	Jarrod Parker	197	4.41
124	Yovani Gallardo	180.2	4.41
125	A.J. Griffin	200	4.44
126	Jered Weaver	154.1	4.44
127	Zach McAllister	134.1	4.46
128	Kyle Lohse	198.2	4.48
129	Kevin Correia	185.1	4.49
130	Jason Hammel	139.1	4.51
131	Bruce Chen	121	4.51
132	Mark Buehrle	203.2	4.57
133	Joe Saunders	183	4.63
134	Tommy Milone	156.1	4.63
135	Aaron Harang	143.1	4.65
136	Ryan Vogelsong	103.2	4.65
137	Mike Pelfrey	152.2	4.7
138	Jeremy Guthrie	211.2	4.71
139	Barry Zito	133.1	4.71
140	Eric Stults	203.2	4.73
141	Jason Marquis	117.2	4.77
142	Jake Westbrook	116.2	4.78
143	Scott Diamond	131	4.8
144	Lucas Harrell	153.2	4.95
145	Dylan Axelrod	128.1	5.08

Here is everyone with 40-100 IP:

Rank	Name	IP	xxFIP
1	Koji Uehara	74.1	2.12
2	Aroldis Chapman	63.2	2.15
3	Greg Holland	67	2.26
4	Kenley Jansen	76.2	2.42
5	Craig Kimbrel	67	2.53
6	Trevor Rosenthal	75.1	2.54
7	Glen Perkins	62.2	2.61
8	Ernesto Frieri	68.2	2.65
9	Al Alburquerque	49	2.68
10	Danny Salazar	52	2.72
11	Neal Cotts	57	2.75
12	Mark Melancon	71	2.78
13	Kelvin Herrera	58.1	2.78
14	Jason Grilli	50	2.79
15	Nate Jones	78	2.81
16	Fernando Rodney	66.2	2.83
17	Chad Qualls	62	2.84
18	Matt Belisle	73	2.88
19	Casey Fien	62	2.9
20	Paco Rodriguez	54.1	2.92
21	Robbie Ross	62.1	2.93
22	Danny Farquhar	55.2	2.96
23	Dane de la Rosa	72.1	2.97
24	Ronald Belisario	68	3.03
25	Seth Maness	62	3.04
26	Pedro Strop	57.1	3.04
27	Manny Parra	46	3.05
28	Steve Delabar	58.2	3.06
29	Jake McGee	62.2	3.07
30	Oliver Perez	53	3.07
31	Johnny Cueto	60.2	3.1
32	Nick Vincent	46.1	3.1
33	Brett Cecil	60.2	3.11
34	Luke Gregerson	66.1	3.12
35	Bobby Parnell	50	3.13
36	David Carpenter	65.2	3.14
37	Charlie Furbush	65	3.16
38	Scott Rice	51	3.17
39	Josh Outman	54	3.19
40	Luke Hochevar	70.1	3.2
41	Joaquin Benoit	67	3.2
42	Adam Ottavino	78.1	3.22
43	Jared Burton	66	3.22
44	Aaron Loup	69.1	3.23
45	LaTroy Hawkins	70.2	3.25
46	Sean Doolittle	69	3.25
47	Bryan Shaw	75	3.28
48	Brad Ziegler	73	3.28
49	Jim Henderson	60	3.29
50	Craig Stammen	81.2	3.3
51	Mike Dunn	67.2	3.3
52	Alex Torres	58	3.31
53	Junichi Tazawa	68.1	3.33
54	Edward Mujica	64.2	3.33
55	Carter Capps	59	3.33
56	Steve Cishek	69.2	3.34
57	Ryan Cook	67.1	3.34
58	Justin De Fratus	46.2	3.37
59	Brandon Kintzler	77	3.39
60	Rex Brothers	67.1	3.39
61	Carlos Marmol	49	3.39
62	Alex Wood	77.2	3.4
63	Mariano Rivera	64	3.4
64	Taylor Jordan	51.2	3.4
65	Brett Anderson	44.2	3.4
66	Wilton Lopez	75.1	3.42
67	Dale Thayer	65	3.42
68	Jaime Garcia	55.1	3.42
69	Will Harris	52.2	3.42
70	Brian Matusz	51	3.42
71	Francisco Rodriguez	46.2	3.42
72	Sergio Romo	60.1	3.43
73	David Robertson	66.1	3.45
74	Joe Nathan	64.2	3.45
75	Darren O'Day	62	3.45
76	Logan Ondrusek	55	3.46
77	Justin Wilson	73.2	3.47
78	Tony Watson	71.2	3.47
79	Yusmeiro Petit	48	3.47
80	Tim Stauffer	69.2	3.49
81	David Hernandez	62.1	3.49
82	Sonny Gray	64	3.5
83	A.J. Ramos	80	3.52
84	Scott Downs	43.1	3.53
85	Jordan Walden	47	3.54
86	Michael Wacha	64.2	3.55
87	Brian Duensing	61	3.55
88	Tyler Clippard	71	3.57
89	Jim Johnson	70.1	3.58
90	Wesley Wright	53.2	3.58
91	Travis Blackley	50.1	3.58
92	Troy Patton	56	3.59
93	Tanner Roark	53.2	3.59
94	Drew Storen	61.2	3.63
95	Drew Smyly	76	3.64
96	Matt Lindstrom	60.2	3.64
97	Tom Wilhelmsen	59	3.64
98	Antonio Bastardo	42.2	3.64
99	Cody Allen	70.1	3.65
100	Yoervis Medina	68	3.65
101	Blake Parker	46.1	3.66
102	Ryan Webb	80.1	3.67
103	Bryan Morris	65	3.67
104	Jesse Chavez	57.1	3.67
105	Tanner Scheppers	76.2	3.68
106	Kevin Gausman	47.2	3.68
107	Brandon Workman	41.2	3.68
108	Tommy Hunter	86.1	3.7
109	Carlos Torres	86.1	3.71
110	Addison Reed	71.1	3.71
111	Sam LeCure	61	3.71
112	Jason Frasor	49	3.71
113	Joe Smith	63	3.72
114	Joe Ortiz	44.2	3.72
115	Anthony Bass	42	3.72
116	Aaron Crow	48	3.73
117	Carlos Carrasco	46.2	3.73
118	Jamey Wright	70	3.75
119	Matt Albers	63	3.75
120	Josh Beckett	43.1	3.75
121	Heath Bell	65.2	3.76
122	Hector Rondon	54.2	3.76
123	Chris Perez	54	3.76
124	T.J. McFarland	74.2	3.77
125	Shawn Kelley	53.1	3.78
126	Santiago Casilla	50	3.78
127	Josh Collmenter	92	3.81
128	Grant Balfour	62.2	3.81
129	George Kontos	55.1	3.81
130	Jeanmar Gomez	80.2	3.82
131	John Axford	65	3.83
132	Casey Janssen	52.2	3.83
133	Tom Gorzelanny	85.1	3.84
134	Stephen Fife	58.1	3.84
135	Alfredo Simon	87.2	3.85
136	Adam Warren	77	3.85
137	Joel Peralta	71.1	3.85
138	J.P. Howell	62	3.9
139	Nick Tepesch	93	3.92
140	Brandon League	54.1	3.92
141	Tim Collins	53.1	3.92
142	Matt Thornton	43.1	3.92
143	Sandy Rosario	41.2	3.92
144	Jake Arrieta	75.1	3.93
145	Joba Chamberlain	42	3.93
146	Preston Claiborne	50.1	3.94
147	Pat Neshek	40.1	3.94
148	Vin Mazzaro	73.2	3.95
149	Michael Kohn	53	3.96
150	Jose Cisnero	43.2	3.96
151	Chad Gaudin	97	3.99
152	J.J. Hoover	66	3.99
153	Luis Avilan	65	3.99
154	Tyler Lyons	53	3.99
155	Jonathan Papelbon	61.2	4.01
156	Jeff Francis	70.1	4.02
157	Jose Veras	62.2	4.03
158	Ross Ohlendorf	60.1	4.03
159	Caleb Thielbar	46	4.05
160	Josh Johnson	81.1	4.07
161	Anthony Swarzak	96	4.08
162	Anthony Varvaro	73.1	4.08
163	Erasmo Ramirez	72.1	4.09
164	Cesar Ramos	67.1	4.09
165	Philip Humber	54.2	4.09
166	Michael Gonzalez	50	4.09
167	Shaun Marcum	78.1	4.11
168	Alfredo Figaro	74	4.11
169	Darren Oliver	49	4.11
170	Rafael Soriano	66.2	4.13
171	Freddy Garcia	80.1	4.14
172	Matt Guerrier	42.2	4.14
173	Dan Jennings	40.2	4.14
174	Jose Mijares	49	4.15
175	Juan Gutierrez	55.1	4.16
176	James Russell	52.2	4.16
177	Manny Corpas	41.2	4.16
178	Todd Redmond	77	4.21
179	Chris Rusin	66.1	4.23
180	Ross Wolf	47.2	4.24
181	Huston Street	56.2	4.25
182	Burke Badenhop	62.1	4.27
183	Chad Bettis	44.2	4.29
184	Brandon Maurer	90	4.3
185	Kevin Slowey	92	4.31
186	Ross Detwiler	71.1	4.31
187	Jarred Cosart	60	4.31
188	Edgmer Escalona	46	4.31
189	Brett Oberholtzer	71.2	4.34
190	Scott Atchison	45.1	4.34
191	David Phelps	86.2	4.35
192	Andrew Albers	60	4.36
193	John Lannan	74.1	4.4
194	Roy Halladay	62	4.42
195	Donovan Hand	68.1	4.43
196	Josh Roenicke	62	4.43
197	Robbie Erlin	54.2	4.43
198	Zach Britton	40	4.43
199	Ryan Pressly	76.2	4.44
200	Clayton Richard	52.2	4.45
201	Craig Breslow	59.2	4.47
202	Jerry Blevins	60	4.48
203	Alex Sanabia	55.1	4.48
204	J.A. Happ	92.2	4.5
205	Ethan Martin	40	4.51
206	Tyler Thornburg	66.2	4.53
207	Liam Hendriks	47.1	4.53
208	Wandy Rodriguez	62.2	4.56
209	Wade LeBlanc	55	4.58
210	Justin Grimm	98	4.59
211	Jon Garland	68	4.59
212	Kevin Gregg	62	4.62
213	Brandon Morrow	54.1	4.69
214	Luis Mendoza	94	4.72
215	Kyle Gibson	51	4.72
216	Brad Peacock	83.1	4.75
217	Tommy Hanson	73	4.76
218	Vance Worley	48.2	4.77
219	Andre Rienzo	56	4.84
220	Tyler Cloyd	60.1	4.87
221	Jeremy Bonderman	55	5.11
222	Pedro Hernandez	56.2	5.23
223	Paul Clemens	73.1	5.3

And here is everyone! You can search for any pitcher you want!

Rank	Name	IP	xxFIP
1	John McDonald	0.1	-7.55
2	Logan Kensing	0.2	0.37
3	Jeremy Jeffress	10.1	1.81
4	Cesar Cabral	3.2	1.86
5	Steven Ames	4	1.89
6	Andrew Miller	30.2	1.9
7	Cody Eppley	1.2	1.9
8	Koji Uehara	74.1	2.12
9	Aroldis Chapman	63.2	2.15
10	Heath Hembree	7.2	2.15
11	Tyler Robertson	1	2.23
12	Greg Holland	67	2.26
13	Luis Perez	5	2.33
14	Victor Marte	3	2.41
15	Kenley Jansen	76.2	2.42
16	Matt Daley	6	2.49
17	Jake Diekman	38.1	2.51
18	Craig Kimbrel	67	2.53
19	Trevor Rosenthal	75.1	2.54
20	Louis Coleman	29.2	2.59
21	Glen Perkins	62.2	2.61
22	Ernesto Frieri	68.2	2.65
23	Al Alburquerque	49	2.68
24	Jenrry Mejia	27.1	2.68
25	Mickey Storey	4	2.69
26	Chance Ruffin	9.2	2.71
27	Danny Salazar	52	2.72
28	Neal Cotts	57	2.75
29	Erik Davis	8.2	2.76
30	Sergio Santos	25.2	2.77
31	Mark Melancon	71	2.78
32	Kelvin Herrera	58.1	2.78
33	Dellin Betances	5	2.78
34	Jason Grilli	50	2.79
35	Nate Jones	78	2.81
36	Fernando Rodney	66.2	2.83
37	Joe Paterson	2.1	2.83
38	Chad Qualls	62	2.84
39	Cristhian Martinez	2.1	2.86
40	Matt Belisle	73	2.88
41	Casey Fien	62	2.9
42	Paco Rodriguez	54.1	2.92
43	Robbie Ross	62.1	2.93
44	Will Smith	33.1	2.93
45	David Hale	11	2.95
46	Jairo Asencio	2.1	2.95
47	Danny Farquhar	55.2	2.96
48	Dane de la Rosa	72.1	2.97
49	Chaz Roe	22.1	2.97
50	Matt Harrison	10.2	2.98
51	Jose Fernandez	172.2	3.01
52	Matt Harvey	178.1	3.02
53	Ronald Belisario	68	3.03
54	Seth Maness	62	3.04
55	Pedro Strop	57.1	3.04
56	Bruce Rondon	28.2	3.04
57	Manny Parra	46	3.05
58	Steve Delabar	58.2	3.06
59	Sean Marshall	10.1	3.06
60	Anibal Sanchez	182	3.07
61	Jake McGee	62.2	3.07
62	Oliver Perez	53	3.07
63	Joakim Soria	23.2	3.07
64	Zach Putnam	3.1	3.07
65	Johnny Cueto	60.2	3.1
66	Nick Vincent	46.1	3.1
67	Javier Lopez	39.1	3.1
68	Randy Choate	35.1	3.1
69	Brandon Gomes	19.1	3.1
70	Brett Cecil	60.2	3.11
71	A.J. Burnett	191	3.12
72	Luke Gregerson	66.1	3.12
73	Bobby Parnell	50	3.13
74	Kevin Siegrist	39.2	3.13
75	Javy Guerra	10.2	3.13
76	David Carpenter	65.2	3.14
77	Pedro Figueroa	3	3.14
78	Chris Sale	214.1	3.16
79	Justin Masterson	193	3.16
80	Charlie Furbush	65	3.16
81	Scott Rice	51	3.17
82	Josh Outman	54	3.19
83	Luke Hochevar	70.1	3.2
84	Joaquin Benoit	67	3.2
85	Cliff Lee	222.2	3.21
86	Francisco Liriano	161	3.21
87	Adam Ottavino	78.1	3.22
88	Jared Burton	66	3.22
89	Aaron Loup	69.1	3.23
90	Clayton Kershaw	236	3.25
91	LaTroy Hawkins	70.2	3.25
92	Sean Doolittle	69	3.25
93	Chang-Yong Lim	5	3.25
94	Alex Cobb	143.1	3.26
95	Chris Withrow	34.2	3.27
96	Bryan Shaw	75	3.28
97	Brad Ziegler	73	3.28
98	Jim Henderson	60	3.29
99	Boone Logan	39	3.29
100	Robert Coello	17	3.29
101	Kyuji Fujikawa	12	3.29
102	Yu Darvish	209.2	3.3
103	Craig Stammen	81.2	3.3
104	Mike Dunn	67.2	3.3
105	Corey Kluber	147.1	3.31
106	Alex Torres	58	3.31
107	Brad Boxberger	22	3.31
108	Josh Stinson	17	3.31
109	Ryan Raburn	1	3.31
110	Junichi Tazawa	68.1	3.33
111	Edward Mujica	64.2	3.33
112	Carter Capps	59	3.33
113	Gavin Floyd	24.1	3.33
114	Duane Below	2.2	3.33
115	Steve Cishek	69.2	3.34
116	Ryan Cook	67.1	3.34
117	Burch Smith	36.1	3.34
118	Josh Zeid	27.2	3.34
119	Cole Hamels	220	3.35
120	Daniel Webb	11.1	3.35
121	Juan Perez	31.2	3.36
122	Carlos Martinez	28.1	3.36
123	Justin De Fratus	46.2	3.37
124	Jimmy Nelson	10	3.38
125	Felix Hernandez	204.1	3.39
126	Madison Bumgarner	201.1	3.39
127	Stephen Strasburg	183	3.39
128	Brandon Kintzler	77	3.39
129	Rex Brothers	67.1	3.39
130	Carlos Marmol	49	3.39
131	Alex Wood	77.2	3.4
132	Mariano Rivera	64	3.4
133	Taylor Jordan	51.2	3.4
134	Brett Anderson	44.2	3.4
135	James Paxton	24	3.4
136	Max Scherzer	214.1	3.41
137	Wilton Lopez	75.1	3.42
138	Dale Thayer	65	3.42
139	Jaime Garcia	55.1	3.42
140	Will Harris	52.2	3.42
141	Brian Matusz	51	3.42
142	Francisco Rodriguez	46.2	3.42
143	Sergio Romo	60.1	3.43
144	Joe Thatcher	39.1	3.43
145	David Robertson	66.1	3.45
146	Joe Nathan	64.2	3.45
147	Darren O'Day	62	3.45
148	Matt Shoemaker	5	3.45
149	Adam Wainwright	241.2	3.46
150	Hisashi Iwakuma	219.2	3.46
151	Logan Ondrusek	55	3.46
152	Justin Wilson	73.2	3.47
153	Tony Watson	71.2	3.47
154	Yusmeiro Petit	48	3.47
155	Scott Barnes	8.2	3.47
156	Patrick Corbin	208.1	3.49
157	Kris Medlen	197	3.49
158	Gerrit Cole	117.1	3.49
159	Tim Stauffer	69.2	3.49
160	David Hernandez	62.1	3.49
161	Sonny Gray	64	3.5
162	Jesse Crain	36.2	3.5
163	Jordan Zimmermann	213.1	3.51
164	Scott Kazmir	158	3.51
165	Rich Hill	38.2	3.51
166	Neil Wagner	38	3.51
167	Mike Adams	25	3.51
168	Samuel Deduno	108	3.52
169	A.J. Ramos	80	3.52
170	Eduardo Sanchez	6.1	3.52
171	Scott Downs	43.1	3.53
172	Homer Bailey	209	3.54
173	Garrett Richards	145	3.54
174	Tyson Ross	125	3.54
175	Jordan Walden	47	3.54
176	Jake Petricka	19.1	3.54
177	Tim Lincecum	197.2	3.55
178	Michael Wacha	64.2	3.55
179	Brian Duensing	61	3.55
180	Stephen Pryor	7.1	3.55
181	Jeff Samardzija	213.2	3.56
182	Phil Coke	38.1	3.56
183	Tyler Clippard	71	3.57
184	Luis Ayala	33	3.57
185	Jim Johnson	70.1	3.58
186	Wesley Wright	53.2	3.58
187	Travis Blackley	50.1	3.58
188	Andrew Bailey	28.2	3.58
189	Sean Burnett	9.2	3.58
190	Roberto Hernandez	151	3.59
191	Troy Patton	56	3.59
192	Tanner Roark	53.2	3.59
193	Marc Rzepczynski	30.2	3.59
194	Cory Gearrin	31	3.61
195	Phillippe Aumont	19.1	3.61
196	Drake Britton	21	3.62
197	Jose De La Torre	11.1	3.62
198	Doug Fister	208.2	3.63
199	Rick Porcello	177	3.63
200	Drew Storen	61.2	3.63
201	Greg Burke	31.2	3.63
202	Justin Verlander	218.1	3.64
203	Drew Smyly	76	3.64
204	Matt Lindstrom	60.2	3.64
205	Tom Wilhelmsen	59	3.64
206	Antonio Bastardo	42.2	3.64
207	Lance Lynn	201.2	3.65
208	Zack Greinke	177.2	3.65
209	Cody Allen	70.1	3.65
210	Yoervis Medina	68	3.65
211	Dan Otero	39	3.65
212	Roy Oswalt	32.1	3.65
213	Brooks Raley	14	3.65
214	Brian Wilson	13.2	3.65
215	Mat Latos	210.2	3.66
216	Blake Parker	46.1	3.66
217	Mike Kickham	28.1	3.66
218	Jake Dunning	25.1	3.66
219	Drew Pomeranz	21.2	3.66
220	Julio Teheran	185.2	3.67
221	Clay Buchholz	108.1	3.67
222	Ryan Webb	80.1	3.67
223	Bryan Morris	65	3.67
224	Jesse Chavez	57.1	3.67
225	John Lackey	189.1	3.68
226	Tanner Scheppers	76.2	3.68
227	Kevin Gausman	47.2	3.68
228	Brandon Workman	41.2	3.68
229	Charlie Morton	116	3.69
230	Tony Cingrani	104.2	3.69
231	Ricky Nolasco	199.1	3.7
232	Tommy Hunter	86.1	3.7
233	Jamey Carroll	1	3.7
234	Carlos Torres	86.1	3.71
235	Addison Reed	71.1	3.71
236	Sam LeCure	61	3.71
237	Jason Frasor	49	3.71
238	Dallas Keuchel	153.2	3.72
239	Joe Smith	63	3.72
240	Joe Ortiz	44.2	3.72
241	Anthony Bass	42	3.72
242	Phil Irwin	4.2	3.72
243	Aaron Crow	48	3.73
244	Carlos Carrasco	46.2	3.73
245	Chris Hatcher	8.2	3.73
246	Gio Gonzalez	195.2	3.74
247	Hyun-Jin Ryu	192	3.74
248	Vinnie Pestano	35.1	3.74
249	Jamey Wright	70	3.75
250	Matt Albers	63	3.75
251	Josh Beckett	43.1	3.75
252	Heath Bell	65.2	3.76
253	Hector Rondon	54.2	3.76
254	Chris Perez	54	3.76
255	David Huff	37.2	3.76
256	Andrew Cashner	175	3.77
257	Henderson Alvarez	102.2	3.77
258	T.J. McFarland	74.2	3.77
259	J.J. Putz	34.1	3.77
260	Ubaldo Jimenez	182.2	3.78
261	Shawn Kelley	53.1	3.78
262	Santiago Casilla	50	3.78
263	Steve Johnson	15.2	3.78
264	Stolmy Pimentel	9.1	3.78
265	Derek Holland	213	3.79
266	Ervin Santana	211	3.79
267	Jon Niese	143	3.79
268	David Aardsma	39.2	3.79
269	Rob Scahill	33.1	3.79
270	Jon Rauch	16.2	3.79
271	Xavier Cedeno	12.1	3.79
272	Tyler Skaggs	38.2	3.8
273	Pedro Feliciano	11.1	3.8
274	David Price	186.2	3.81
275	Josh Collmenter	92	3.81
276	Grant Balfour	62.2	3.81
277	George Kontos	55.1	3.81
278	Shelby Miller	173.1	3.82
279	Brandon McCarthy	135	3.82
280	Jeanmar Gomez	80.2	3.82
281	John Axford	65	3.83
282	Casey Janssen	52.2	3.83
283	Gonzalez Germen	34.1	3.83
284	Ivan Nova	139.1	3.84
285	Tim Hudson	131.1	3.84
286	Tom Gorzelanny	85.1	3.84
287	Stephen Fife	58.1	3.84
288	Kyle Farnsworth	38.1	3.84
289	Nick Hagadone	31.1	3.84
290	CC Sabathia	211	3.85
291	Matt Garza	155.1	3.85
292	Alfredo Simon	87.2	3.85
293	Adam Warren	77	3.85
294	Joel Peralta	71.1	3.85
295	Darin Downs	35.1	3.85
296	Thad Weber	15	3.86
297	Kris Johnson	10.1	3.86
298	Chris Leroux	4	3.86
299	Fernando Abad	37.2	3.88
300	Jared Hughes	32	3.88
301	Taijuan Walker	15	3.88
302	Jorge de la Rosa	167.2	3.89
303	Jeremy Affeldt	33.2	3.89
304	Matt Reynolds	27.1	3.89
305	Zack Wheeler	100	3.9
306	J.P. Howell	62	3.9
307	Evan Reed	23.1	3.9
308	Paul Maholm	153	3.91
309	Dustin McGowan	25.2	3.91
310	Ryan Reid	11	3.91
311	Nick Tepesch	93	3.92
312	Brandon League	54.1	3.92
313	Tim Collins	53.1	3.92
314	Matt Thornton	43.1	3.92
315	Sandy Rosario	41.2	3.92
316	Luis Garcia	31.1	3.92
317	Jonathan Broxton	30.2	3.92
318	Brandon Cumpton	30.2	3.92
319	Michael Kirkman	22	3.92
320	Alex Colome	16	3.92
321	Bobby LaFromboise	10.2	3.92
322	R.A. Dickey	224.2	3.93
323	Jake Arrieta	75.1	3.93
324	Joba Chamberlain	42	3.93
325	Brandon Beachy	30	3.93
326	James Shields	228.2	3.94
327	Mike Minor	204.2	3.94
328	Dillon Gee	199	3.94
329	Preston Claiborne	50.1	3.94
330	Pat Neshek	40.1	3.94
331	Rubby de la Rosa	11.1	3.94
332	Chris Capuano	105.2	3.95
333	Vin Mazzaro	73.2	3.95
334	Brian Omogrosso	16.1	3.95
335	Blake Wood	1.1	3.95
336	Jhoulys Chacin	197.1	3.96
337	Ian Kennedy	181.1	3.96
338	Michael Kohn	53	3.96
339	Jose Cisnero	43.2	3.96
340	Danny Duffy	24.1	3.96
341	Chris Archer	128.2	3.97
342	Luke Putkonen	29.2	3.97
343	Ian Krol	27.1	3.98
344	Chris Tillman	206.1	3.99
345	Chad Gaudin	97	3.99
346	J.J. Hoover	66	3.99
347	Luis Avilan	65	3.99
348	Tyler Lyons	53	3.99
349	Mitchell Boggs	23.1	3.99
350	Chia-Jen Lo	19.1	3.99
351	Tyler Chatwood	111.1	4
352	Nathan Eovaldi	106.1	4.01
353	Jonathan Papelbon	61.2	4.01
354	Jeff Francis	70.1	4.02
355	Jose Alvarez	38.2	4.02
356	Mauricio Robles	4.2	4.02
357	Carlos Villanueva	128.2	4.03
358	Jose Veras	62.2	4.03
359	Ross Ohlendorf	60.1	4.03
360	Collin McHugh	26	4.04
361	Wade Miley	202.2	4.05
362	Hiroki Kuroda	201.1	4.05
363	Andy Pettitte	185.1	4.05
364	Tom Koehler	143	4.05
365	Caleb Thielbar	46	4.05
366	Blake Beavan	39.2	4.05
367	Lucas Luetge	37	4.05
368	Edinson Volquez	170.1	4.06
369	Juan Nicasio	157.2	4.06
370	Hector Santiago	149	4.06
371	Martin Perez	124.1	4.06
372	Edwin Jackson	175.1	4.07
373	Felix Doubront	162.1	4.07
374	Dan Straily	152.1	4.07
375	Josh Johnson	81.1	4.07
376	Franklin Morales	25.1	4.07
377	Brian Flynn	18	4.07
378	Anthony Swarzak	96	4.08
379	Anthony Varvaro	73.1	4.08
380	Michael Tonkin	11.1	4.08
381	C.J. Wilson	212.1	4.09
382	Erasmo Ramirez	72.1	4.09
383	Cesar Ramos	67.1	4.09
384	Philip Humber	54.2	4.09
385	Michael Gonzalez	50	4.09
386	Bartolo Colon	190.1	4.1
387	Bud Norris	176.2	4.1
388	Eric O'Flaherty	18	4.1
389	Arquimedes Caminero	13	4.1
390	Shaun Marcum	78.1	4.11
391	Alfredo Figaro	74	4.11
392	Darren Oliver	49	4.11
393	Raul Valdes	35	4.11
394	Donnie Veal	29.1	4.11
395	Jon Lester	213.1	4.12
396	Matt Cain	184.1	4.12
397	Hector Noesi	27.1	4.12
398	J.C. Ramirez	24	4.12
399	Jerome Williams	169.1	4.13
400	John Danks	138.1	4.13
401	Rafael Soriano	66.2	4.13
402	Jose Quintana	200	4.14
403	Miguel Gonzalez	171.1	4.14
404	Freddy Garcia	80.1	4.14
405	Matt Guerrier	42.2	4.14
406	Dan Jennings	40.2	4.14
407	Ryan Brasier	9	4.14
408	C.C. Lee	4.1	4.14
409	Trevor Cahill	146.2	4.15
410	Wade Davis	135.1	4.15
411	Joe Blanton	132.2	4.15
412	Jose Mijares	49	4.15
413	Allen Webster	30.1	4.15
414	Ryan Dempster	171.1	4.16
415	Juan Gutierrez	55.1	4.16
416	James Russell	52.2	4.16
417	Manny Corpas	41.2	4.16
418	Sam Freeman	12.1	4.16
419	Maikel Cleto	2.1	4.16
420	Bronson Arroyo	202	4.17
421	Randall Delgado	116.1	4.18
422	Rob Wooten	27.2	4.19
423	Rafael Betancourt	28.2	4.2
424	Mike Leake	192.1	4.21
425	Marco Estrada	128	4.21
426	Todd Redmond	77	4.21
427	Charlie Leesman	15.1	4.21
428	Jonathan Pettibone	100.1	4.22
429	Joe Savery	20	4.22
430	Wei-Yin Chen	137	4.23
431	Joe Kelly	124	4.23
432	Chris Rusin	66.1	4.23
433	Dan Haren	169.2	4.24
434	Alexi Ogando	104.1	4.24
435	Ross Wolf	47.2	4.24
436	Josh Fields	38	4.24
437	Zach Duke	31.1	4.24
438	Jeff Locke	166.1	4.25
439	Matt Moore	150.1	4.25
440	Huston Street	56.2	4.25
441	Kevin Jepsen	36	4.25
442	Michael Roth	20	4.25
443	Phil Hughes	145.2	4.26
444	Ramon Troncoso	30	4.26
445	Vic Black	17	4.26
446	Wily Peralta	183.1	4.27
447	Erik Bedard	151	4.27
448	Burke Badenhop	62.1	4.27
449	Jeff Manship	30.2	4.27
450	Chad Billingsley	12	4.27
451	Kyle Kendrick	182	4.28
452	Chad Durbin	16	4.28
453	Chad Bettis	44.2	4.29
454	Brayan Villarreal	4.1	4.29
455	Travis Wood	200	4.3
456	Scott Feldman	181.2	4.3
457	Brandon Maurer	90	4.3
458	Rafael Dolis	5	4.3
459	Jason Vargas	150	4.31
460	Kevin Slowey	92	4.31
461	Ross Detwiler	71.1	4.31
462	Jarred Cosart	60	4.31
463	Edgmer Escalona	46	4.31
464	Frank Francisco	6.1	4.31
465	Joe Martinez	5	4.31
466	Michael Bowden	37.2	4.32
467	Buddy Boshers	15.1	4.33
468	Justin Germano	2	4.33
469	Jeremy Hefner	130.2	4.34
470	Brett Oberholtzer	71.2	4.34
471	Scott Atchison	45.1	4.34
472	David Phelps	86.2	4.35
473	Jose Valverde	19.1	4.35
474	Andrew Albers	60	4.36
475	Brad Brach	31	4.36
476	Ted Lilly	23	4.36
477	Josh Tomlin	2	4.36
478	Daisuke Matsuzaka	38.2	4.37
479	Chad Jenkins	33.1	4.37
480	Josh Edgin	28.2	4.37
481	Alberto Cabrera	6	4.37
482	Jacob Turner	118	4.38
483	John Gast	12.1	4.38
484	Jake Peavy	144.2	4.39
485	Esmil Rogers	137.2	4.39
486	John Maine	7.1	4.39
487	Jeremy Hellickson	174	4.4
488	Jordan Lyles	141.2	4.4
489	John Lannan	74.1	4.4
490	B.J. Rosenberg	19.2	4.4
491	Eury De la Rosa	14.2	4.4
492	Jarrod Parker	197	4.41
493	Yovani Gallardo	180.2	4.41
494	David Purcey	25.1	4.41
495	Matt Langwell	14	4.41
496	Tom Layne	8.2	4.41
497	Roy Halladay	62	4.42
498	Jose Ortega	11.2	4.42
499	Donovan Hand	68.1	4.43
500	Josh Roenicke	62	4.43
501	Robbie Erlin	54.2	4.43
502	Zach Britton	40	4.43
503	Hector Ambriz	36.1	4.43
504	Josh Lindblom	31.1	4.43
505	Clayton Mortensen	30.1	4.43
506	A.J. Griffin	200	4.44
507	Jered Weaver	154.1	4.44
508	Ryan Pressly	76.2	4.44
509	Matt Magill	27.2	4.44
510	Clayton Richard	52.2	4.45
511	Brad Hand	20.2	4.45
512	Yordano Ventura	15.1	4.45
513	Zach McAllister	134.1	4.46
514	Ryan Mattheus	35.1	4.46
515	Nick Maronde	5.1	4.46
516	Craig Breslow	59.2	4.47
517	Josh Lueke	21.1	4.47
518	Kyle Lohse	198.2	4.48
519	Jerry Blevins	60	4.48
520	Alex Sanabia	55.1	4.48
521	Fernando Salas	28	4.48
522	Kevin Correia	185.1	4.49
523	Cory Rasmus	21.2	4.49
524	J.A. Happ	92.2	4.5
525	Jason Hammel	139.1	4.51
526	Bruce Chen	121	4.51
527	Ethan Martin	40	4.51
528	Shawn Camp	23	4.51
529	Jose Contreras	5	4.51
530	Chien-Ming Wang	27	4.52
531	Tyler Thornburg	66.2	4.53
532	Liam Hendriks	47.1	4.53
533	Donnie Joseph	5.2	4.53
534	Zach Miner	28.2	4.55
535	Kevin Chapman	20.1	4.55
536	Michael Blazek	17.1	4.55
537	Simon Castro	6.2	4.55
538	Wandy Rodriguez	62.2	4.56
539	Alfredo Aceves	37	4.56
540	Kameron Loe	26.2	4.56
541	Shairon Martis	9.2	4.56
542	Mark Buehrle	203.2	4.57
543	Derek Lowe	13	4.57
544	Wade LeBlanc	55	4.58
545	Justin Grimm	98	4.59
546	Jon Garland	68	4.59
547	Brandon Lyon	34.1	4.59
548	Erik Johnson	27.2	4.59
549	Michael Stutes	17.2	4.59
550	Onelki Garcia	1.1	4.59
551	Jake Odorizzi	29.2	4.6
552	Aaron Laffey	12.2	4.6
553	Hisanori Takahashi	3	4.6
554	Chris Narveson	2	4.6
555	Kevin Gregg	62	4.62
556	Curtis Partch	23.1	4.62
557	Jonathan Sanchez	13.2	4.62
558	Joe Saunders	183	4.63
559	Tommy Milone	156.1	4.63
560	Johnny Hellweg	30.2	4.64
561	Aaron Harang	143.1	4.65
562	Ryan Vogelsong	103.2	4.65
563	Jorge De Leon	10	4.65
564	Neftali Feliz	4.2	4.65
565	Rhiner Cruz	21.1	4.68
566	Brandon Morrow	54.1	4.69
567	Tony Sipp	37.2	4.69
568	Octavio Dotel	4.2	4.69
569	Mike Pelfrey	152.2	4.7
570	Jeremy Guthrie	211.2	4.71
571	Barry Zito	133.1	4.71
572	P.J. Walters	39.1	4.71
573	Mike Zagurski	6.1	4.71
574	Luis Mendoza	94	4.72
575	Kyle Gibson	51	4.72
576	Francisley Bueno	8.1	4.72
577	Eric Stults	203.2	4.73
578	Mike Fiers	22.1	4.73
579	Zeke Spruill	11.1	4.74
580	Brad Peacock	83.1	4.75
581	Tommy Hanson	73	4.76
582	Jason Marquis	117.2	4.77
583	Vance Worley	48.2	4.77
584	Jake Westbrook	116.2	4.78
585	Scott Diamond	131	4.8
586	Alex Wilson	27.2	4.8
587	Chris Dwyer	3	4.8
588	Chris Resop	18	4.81
589	Andre Rienzo	56	4.84
590	Brad Lincoln	31.2	4.84
591	Scott Baker	15	4.84
592	Enny Romero	4.2	4.84
593	Jeurys Familia	10.2	4.85
594	Henry Rodriguez	22	4.86
595	Tyler Cloyd	60.1	4.87
596	Guillermo Moscoso	30	4.87
597	Evan Scribner	26.2	4.88
598	Sam Dyson	11	4.9
599	Hideki Okajima	4	4.9
600	Charles Brewer	6	4.92
601	Edgar Gonzalez	18	4.93
602	Zach Phillips	1.2	4.93
603	Cesar Jimenez	17	4.94
604	Lucas Harrell	153.2	4.95
605	James McDonald	29.2	4.95
606	Sean O'Sullivan	25	5.01
607	Hiram Burgos	29.1	5.02
608	Pedro Beato	10	5.02
609	Chris Bootcheck	1	5.04
610	Jeremy Horst	26	5.05
611	Brett Marshall	12	5.07
612	Ricky Romero	7.1	5.07
613	Dylan Axelrod	128.1	5.08
614	Deunte Heath	7.2	5.09
615	Kyle Drabek	2.1	5.1
616	Jeremy Bonderman	55	5.11
617	Keith Butler	20	5.12
618	Jose Dominguez	8.1	5.15
619	Greg Reynolds	29.1	5.16
620	Cory Burns	11.1	5.16
621	Pedro Hernandez	56.2	5.23
622	Jake Elmore	1	5.26
623	Mark Lowe	11.2	5.28
624	Paul Clemens	73.1	5.3
625	Ramon Ortiz	25.1	5.3
626	Robert Carson	19.2	5.32
627	Barry Enright	8.1	5.39
628	Skip Schumaker	2	5.39
629	Vidal Nuno	20	5.41
630	Kyle McClellan	9.1	5.42
631	Ramon Ramirez	5.2	5.42
632	Josh Wall	7	5.43
633	Daniel Bard	1	5.44
634	Trevor Bauer	17	5.46
635	Chris Volstad	8.1	5.49
636	Joel Hanrahan	7.1	5.52
637	Jair Jurrjens	7.1	5.52
638	Edgar Olmos	5	5.52
639	Casper Wells	1.2	5.52
640	Peter Moylan	15.1	5.54
641	Billy Buckner	17.1	5.59
642	David Murphy	1	5.59
643	Cole DeVries	15	5.64
644	Clay Rapada	2	5.68
645	Brett Myers	21.1	5.69
646	David Martinez	11.1	5.77
647	Zac Rosscup	6.2	5.82
648	Nick Christiani	4	5.82
649	Duke Welker	1.1	5.86
650	Tim Byrdak	4.2	5.98
651	Preston Guilmet	5.1	6.12
652	Pedro Villarreal	5.2	6.48
653	Dave Bush	3	6.97
654	Alex Burnett	2.1	7.03
655	David Holmberg	3.2	7.34
656	Sean Henn	2.2	7.48
657	Daniel Stange	1.2	7.58
658	Michael Belfiore	1.1	7.65
659	Miles Mikolas	1.2	7.95
660	Eric Surkamp	2.2	8.53
661	Jim Miller	1.1	8.69
662	Zach Clark	1.2	9.02
663	Justin Freeman	1	9.16
664	Wilmer Font	1.1	9.44
665	Sean Nolin	1.1	10.85
666	Anthony Recker	1	12.99
667	Josh Harrison	0.1	18.05
668	Jeff Beliveau	0.2	21.93
669	Everett Teaford	0.2	24.55
670	Alberto Gonzalez	0.1	24.81
671	Sam Fuld	0.1	25.45
672	Yunesky Maya	0.1	25.89
673	David Carpenter	0.1	35.18

Maybe the Blue Jays should acquire John McDonald to be our ace! ⅓ IP is a good sample size right?

There he is!

4 Comments

Matt Swartz
December 28, 2013

Chris, I really enjoyed this piece too. Thanks for posting it. Lots of hard work went into it for sure.

I have 2 questions and a comment about it.

The comment is just about how you referred to SIERA’s input as “not intuitive,” and I wanted to reassure you that they are. I wrote in detail about all the intuition here.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-siera-part-two-of-five-unlocking-underrated-pitching-skills/

Ultimately, it just comes down to partial derivatives. If you can take a partial derivative, all inputs make sense.

The first question is very important– where are you getting your fly ball numbers from? Are you using actual fly balls? It seems like you are, which would obviously not be useful in predicting player performance in advance or estimating past season talent level retrospectively either. I would develop an x(FB/BIP), if that’s not in there. My apologies if it was. Is that what you are using for 2013 testing as well? Even if you use 2008-12 out of sample, you’re boosting estimates by using the known 2013 fly balls. Again, I may be misinterpreting this.

The second question is about how you developed your regression coefficients. Was the dependent variable the same season HR/FB (or K or BB, etc., depending on which xSTAT you were developing) or was it out of sample? Did you weight these? Did you exclude certain pitchers?

Also, a suggestion to get a bigger sample might be this: regress the whole 2008-13 sample of pitchers, but do your tests by developing 6 sets of regression coefficients. (a) 2008-12 players to test on 2013 out of sample (b) 2008-11 & 2013 players to test on 2012 out of sample (c) 2008-10 & 2012-13 players to test on 2011 out of sample, etc.

If you do this, you can build a bigger set of players to run the tests on, while still sticking to the out-of-sample approach (which you are right to use).

Either way, great work. I think you’ve got something really valuable here and especially if it could be applied to young minor leaguers at some point, I could see even more value coming out of the modeling framework you’re developing!
Post a Reply
- Chris Carruthers
  January 2, 2014
  
  Thanks for the comment Matt. I will try working to create other samples to test as you suggested.
  
  I did use actual fly ball numbers, similar to xFIP. Fly balls have a high correlation year to year, and I highly doubt an xFB% would be any more predictive than FB% in anything more than a handful of games. 2013 FBs were not used, so that doesn’t boost anything. 2012 FBs were used in the predictive testing against 2013.
  
  For xHR/FB, it was determined over the full sample (not an individual season) in order to have a larger sample size (independent variable was same sample). The sample was over 2008-2012.
  Post a Reply
  - Matt Swartz
    January 2, 2014
    
    Thanks. Okay, so it sounds like you testing out of sample is still same-year data, right? So you tested the 2013 xxFIP vs. 2013 ERA with coefficients created from previous years then, right? You should also check how well 2012 xxFIP does predicting 2013 park-adjusted ERA. If you look at xFIP and SIERA, they actually do a better job than a lot of projection systems in this right, suggesting that the underlying skills they pick up on are extremely important.
    Post a Reply
    - Chris Carruthers
      January 2, 2014
      
      This particular test was 2012 estimator on 2013 ERA using coefficients determined in the previous years. The predictive power for following years is quite good for all 3 estimators.
      Post a Reply

One Estimator to Rule Them All: xxFIP – Part 3

4 Comments

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