Rangers Board The Choo Choo Train
Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo has reportedly signed a seven-year $130 million deal with the Texas Rangers. Choo is coming off a great bounce-back year in which he posted 5.2 fWAR on the strength of a .423 OBP. Yep, he got on base 1.86 times more often than J.P. Arencibia. Choo is a butcher in the field however; he has had a UZR under -15 in consecutive seasons. Due to his lack of defensive prowess, he will likely have to move to DH down the road (if it isn’t already occupied by the Prince). This move actually wouldn’t really decrease his value however, since his defense already makes up for the positional adjustment.
There has been lots of positive talk about the contract, and a lot of people clambering on about the “5 year rule” for the Blue Jays, but was it really a good deal? I have seen some uneasiness with other knowledgeable baseball minds as well. Let’s take a look at the projected surplus value of the contract.
Choo is currently projected for 3.2 WAR by Steamer, which seems very reasonable, as the 15% walk rate would be very hard to maintain. Choo’s contract is as follows: $14M in 2014 and 2015, $21M in 2016 and 2017, and $20M from 2018-2020. Using Oliver’s 5 year projections as a guide, and the 3.2 WAR from Steamer, I will break down the contract:
So it looks like the deal is decent value for Texas, but it isn’t a steal by any means. I’m also not a fan of the backloading. After the first two years are over, they are looking at a probable negative value player. They might end up with a logjam at the DH spot with Fielder and Choo after two years if Choo’s defense continues to decline. It’s also possible that Adrian Beltre may not be fully capable to play 3rd in two years, causing even more of a logjam. The Rangers will likely be forced to end up moving one these players, and both Choo and Fielder’s contracts will look very daunting at that time. It will be unlikely that the Rangers could flip one of them for anything of value, as we all know how bad Fielder’s contract will be then.
Why didn’t the Rangers pay up front so that they could have a more movable asset down the road if necessary? If they plan on keeping Choo in the outfield, they’ll be in for a lot of runs lost. It makes more sense to pay for the wins when they occur and then move the contract for an asset. Then again, there is always the Marlins patented “sign and dump” approach, where you pay a cheap price for the wins and then dump the salary for nothing.
Choo will also have the ability to block trades to 10 teams. This would make his contract considerably harder to dump, and suggests Daniels has gone a bit daft in thinking Choo can patrol an outfield spot for the next 7 years.
Overall, the contract itself is not bad in terms of value, but the logistics just don’t make a lot of sense for the Rangers in the future. The contract isn’t structured in a way that will really benefit the Rangers in the long term, though it certainly does in the short. Let me know what you think of the deal in the comments!