Offseason Power Rankings – Jan 2

Not much has been happening in baseball land since the Winter Meetings, but it’s time to throw out some updated rankings for the new year. These rankings are strictly based off of Steamer projections and some playing time adjustments by FanGraphs. I’ll post the rankings and then review some of the moves that affected them. If a team lost a win, it is usually because another team gained one and someone has to lose it! The projections are 2.6 WAR too high per team, or about 5.5%.

Rank
Prev.
Team
WAR
Wins
Losses
Net
11Red Sox479270-1
22Tigers44.590720
36Rangers42.988742
43Rays42.688740
59Dodgers41.687752
64Royals41.487750
75Angels40.78676-1
87Athletics40.486760
98Cardinals40.486760
1011Indians4085770
1110Blue Jays39.985770
1212Rockies38.38379-1
1315Braves37.783790
1416Diamondbacks37.483790
1513Giants36.78280-1
1618Yankees36.782800
1714Mariners36.68280-1
1817Nationals36.582800
1919Pirates368181-1
2020Orioles34.580820
2121Padres32.177851
2222Reds31.376860
2323Mets30.275870
2424Twins29.575871
2525Astros29.274881
2626Brewers28.474881
2727Cubs28.173890
2828Phillies2873890
2929White Sox26.17191-2
3030Marlins20.365971

Winners:

Texas Rangers: The Rangers inked Shin-Soo Choo to a 7 year deal recently. This signing filled a corner outfield position and gained them two full wins. This jumps them to first in the AL West in the projections, and third overall.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers resigned their third baseman Juan Uribe and also some minor bullpen signings. Uribe is coming off a fantastic season seeing him accumulate 5.1 WAR. He’s projected for 2.7 this year, which gives the Dodgers two more wins and moves them to first in the NL West.

Minnesota Twins: The Twins dumped the worst pitcher-framing catcher of our era, Ryan Doumit, and replaced him with a better-framing Kurt Suzuki. See Matt Carruth’s (nice last name) data at StatCorner. This switch gained them a win.

San Diego Padres: The Padres signed former Tiger’s closer, Joaquin Benoit, recently. Benoit will likely set-up Street in San Diego, but this move was enough to add a win.

Houston Astros: The Astros tried to patch their bullpen by signing Chad Qualls and Matt Albers. The Astros’ bullpen was horrific last year and could use some stability. These two men combined to add a win for the runt of the American League.

The only transaction that led to a loss of wins was the Angels signing of Raul Ibanez. Ibanez is near replacement level, and his singing took some ABs away from J.B. Shuck. The Angels fell one win.

Here are the divisions with these projections, with playoff teams bolded:

AL East

Red Sox 92-70
Rays 88-74
Blue Jays 85-77
Yankees 82-80
Orioles 80-82

AL Central

Tigers 90-72
Royals 87-75
Indians 85-77
Twins 74-88
White Sox 73-89

AL West

Rangers 88-74
Angels 86-76
Athletics 86-76
Mariners 82-80
Astros 73-89

NL East

Braves 83-79
Nationals 82-80
Mets 75-87
Phillies 73-89
Marlins 64-98

NL Central

Cardinals 86-76
Pirates 81-81
Reds 76-86
Brewers 73-89
Cubs 73-89

NL West

Dodgers 87-75
Rockies 83-79
Diamonbacks 83-79
Giants 82-70
Padres 77-85

Theoretical World Series: Red Sox vs. Dodgers with the Red Sox winning it all. The Dodgers have taken over from the Cards as NL favourites!

2014 Breaking Blue Pitcher Projections
A Premortem for Kevin Towers

Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

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