2014 Breaking Blue Pitcher Projections

My 2014 pitcher projections are finally here! I’m not going to give away all my secrets and mathematical formulae, but here are some points on my projections:

– They are NOT park or league adjusted, everyone is assumed to be in a league average environment. If you want to calculate what a pitcher’s ERA or FIP would be in their park, use FanGraphs’ Guts page for factors. For example Madison Bumgarner’s projected 3.40 ERA in a vacuum would be around 3.20 in AT&T. This would not change the WAR value however.

– The projections use PitchF/X numbers and are on a pitch to pitch basis. All inputs are completely pitcher controlled, this means no K or BB numbers were used.

– You may naturally discredit the ERA projection, but I would advise not to. The difference between ERA and FIP is the part of ERA that the pitcher can control which is not in FIP. How can they do this? Slowing the running game and playing good defense. DRS numbers are used here, but are heavily regressed. There might be some batted ball values in there too. For example, Clayton Kershaw has been a DIPS beater so far in his career. This partially has to do with his park, but also his defense, and more specifically, his ability to stop the running game. Kershaw has allowed 341 ER in his career. FIP suggests it should be 378. This is a difference of 37 (/.92 on a runs scale to 40 runs). Some of the difference should be 1B, 2B, and 3B park factors, which is approximately an expected 21 runs difference. We’re left with a 19 run difference after park factors. How many runs has Kershaw saved with defense? 20 runs (17 from holding runners). Which brings us down to a -1 run difference. Pitcher defense is a thing! I have provided RA9 WAR and normal WAR so you can decide if you’d like to trust these numbers or not.

– Only MLB numbers are used as inputs, minor league numbers are NOT used (lack of detailed data). Because of this, you might want to give more wiggle room to guys with limited MLB time. For example, Yordano Ventura or Taijuan Walker.

– Only pitchers who pitched in the MLB in 2013 were projected, and the last 3 years are used as inputs.

– Decay and RTTM constants for each projected stat were determined using previous years’ data. Because of this, I can’t test the projection system! So you have to take my word for it until after 2014.

– IP totals are taken from Steamer. When ZiPS is fully available, I will likely average the two.

– xFIP is included if you would prefer to use league average HR/FB instead of the projected value.

Here is the Google Sheet of the projections.

You can go File -> Make a Copy… to have your own to play around with and change the IP values to see what happens to WAR. Note changing the ERA or FIP will change WAR, but not properly as Runs/Win will not change in the spreadsheet.

If you prefer not to leave the page, here are the projections. You can search for whoever you please.

Name
Age
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
K/BB
WHIP
ERA
FIP
xFIP
RA9
WAR
RA9 WAR
Chris Sale251929.382.720.843.441.183.113.093.143.384.84.7
Clayton Kershaw261928.942.760.913.241.193.153.33.323.424.24.6
Jose Fernandez211739.572.720.873.521.1433.093.123.264.34.6
Anibal Sanchez301899.242.70.863.421.163.163.143.23.434.64.5
Cliff Lee351928.331.780.974.671.143.193.23.223.474.44.5
Justin Masterson291928.222.890.722.851.23.213.233.213.494.44.4
Alex Cobb261927.712.990.692.581.213.293.333.283.574.14.2
Cole Hamels301928.822.30.973.841.173.283.253.313.574.34.2
Danny Salazar241739.942.640.963.761.153.143.113.253.414.34.2
Yu Darvish2719210.53.990.852.631.253.323.283.353.614.24.1
R.A. Dickey391927.62.11.033.621.173.333.563.673.623.44.1
Justin Verlander311928.972.8113.191.193.353.443.533.643.74
A.J. Burnett371928.553.160.752.711.243.43.293.243.74.23.8
Madison Bumgarner241928.752.850.963.071.23.43.443.453.73.73.8
Felix Hernandez281928.362.790.832.991.233.413.333.293.714.13.8
Max Scherzer2919210.033.211.023.131.233.413.373.543.713.93.8
Hisashi Iwakuma331827.451.970.963.791.173.383.433.413.683.63.7
Francisco Liriano301739.213.80.782.421.273.323.43.443.613.53.7
Corey Kluber281738.262.680.843.081.213.333.323.343.623.73.7
Kris Medlen281737.512.210.873.41.193.333.383.423.623.53.7
Patrick Corbin241827.092.070.983.431.183.423.583.533.723.23.6
Johnny Cueto281737.582.870.812.641.253.363.493.493.653.23.6
Adam Wainwright321827.512.640.842.841.253.463.483.433.763.43.5
Stephen Strasburg251739.383.510.852.671.273.423.373.43.713.63.4
CC Sabathia331927.632.470.943.091.223.573.553.553.883.43.4
David Price281927.552.670.962.831.233.573.653.643.883.13.4
Zack Greinke301927.933.590.862.211.33.573.743.753.882.93.4
Doug Fister301737.012.580.822.711.263.463.533.513.773.13.3
Andrew Cashner271827.472.970.822.511.273.543.563.583.853.23.3
Sonny Gray241738.183.650.782.241.313.523.583.63.8233.2
James Shields321928.053.020.982.661.33.643.683.693.9633.1
Hyun-Jin Ryu271897.52.950.922.551.283.643.73.683.962.93.1
Jeff Samardzija291738.813.210.92.741.263.553.473.53.863.33.1
Jordan Zimmermann281637.091.731.064.091.163.53.583.523.82.83
Tony Cingrani2416310.654.041.032.641.283.513.523.633.8133
Tim Lincecum301829.13.770.862.411.313.643.543.543.953.33
Garrett Richards261737.12.680.832.641.273.583.573.513.8933
Ricky Nolasco311927.332.21.023.321.253.713.633.584.033.23
Gerrit Cole231637.22.750.82.621.273.523.523.513.8333
Scott Kazmir301638.773.110.982.821.253.533.563.633.842.92.9
Chris Capuano351897.592.431.13.131.243.733.773.754.052.72.9
Lance Lynn271638.953.510.912.551.33.593.553.593.92.92.8
Mat Latos261828.132.791.042.911.253.713.683.674.042.92.8
James Paxton251447.783.280.742.371.293.483.483.443.782.72.7
Jorge de la Rosa331927.233.10.942.331.313.83.843.854.132.62.7
Hiroki Kuroda391926.773.030.972.241.313.813.963.954.142.32.7
Ian Kennedy291928.142.91.122.811.293.813.833.894.152.62.7
Rick Porcello251736.222.60.812.391.33.763.713.654.082.72.6
Samuel Deduno301347.413.340.632.221.323.463.433.373.772.62.5
Julio Teheran231737.952.531.183.141.243.773.833.94.12.42.5
Michael Wacha231638.693.121.082.791.273.713.713.764.042.52.5
Gavin Floyd311538.093.160.962.561.273.663.73.73.972.42.5
Shelby Miller231638.963.051.122.941.263.733.73.764.052.52.5
Gio Gonzalez281738.740.92.171.363.83.753.784.132.62.4
C.J. Wilson331928.133.740.972.171.343.93.93.844.242.42.4
Jon Niese271347.112.450.892.91.243.533.583.543.832.32.4
Kevin Gausman231738.223.381.012.431.313.813.813.734.152.42.4
Matt Harrison281737.262.880.962.521.293.813.783.784.152.52.4
Nathan Eovaldi241737.222.81.032.581.33.823.873.844.152.32.4
Hector Santiago261749.413.971.112.371.323.833.893.954.162.22.4
Ivan Nova271896.73.010.942.221.353.913.923.864.252.32.4
Carlos Torres311607.793.020.992.581.293.763.753.774.092.42.3
David Hale261027.844.10.381.911.343.233.233.233.512.32.3
Homer Bailey281447.922.751.032.881.233.673.73.693.992.22.3
Matt Moore251899.233.911.132.361.343.943.943.994.282.32.3
Tanner Roark271456.872.670.852.571.293.683.653.5642.42.3
Jhoulys Chacin261926.262.912.161.343.964.074.024.322.3
Erasmo Ramirez241447.612.441.073.121.233.693.723.724.012.22.3
Alex Wood231108.423.560.762.361.293.373.463.493.662.12.3
Juan Nicasio271897.633.361.022.271.353.953.953.944.32.32.3
Trevor Cahill261826.773.870.751.751.43.933.933.94.272.22.2
Jeff Francis331926.572.841.052.311.313.984.064.034.3322.2
Koji Uehara396512.391.510.898.190.892.092.092.432.272.22.2
Charlie Morton301345.782.610.672.211.323.643.613.553.962.32.2
Derek Holland271737.562.571.142.951.263.93.883.834.242.22.2
Bud Norris291738.23.281.132.51.33.93.953.954.242.12.2
Carlos Carrasco271446.442.10.983.061.263.733.733.654.062.22.2
Henderson Alvarez241534.920.872.441.283.83.893.834.1422.1
Roy Halladay371448.13.040.992.671.283.763.73.724.082.22.1
Dillon Gee281447.122.291.093.111.243.763.813.794.0922.1
Brandon Beachy271638.473.011.192.821.283.893.93.934.232.12.1
Joe Blanton331646.652.31.042.891.283.93.853.824.242.22.1
Brett Anderson26967.893.020.652.611.273.33.253.193.592.22.1
Edwin Jackson301737.122.990.992.381.333.953.93.844.32.22.1
John Lackey351737.262.391.083.041.253.953.793.794.32.52.1
Josh Johnson301827.783.620.962.151.3743.913.864.352.32.1
Matt Cain291927.742.921.222.651.294.044.074.044.422
Alexi Ogando301538.152.841.172.871.273.863.873.924.222
Craig Kimbrel266513.063.670.593.561.072.232.222.352.4322
Wade Miley271826.363.030.972.11.354.024.043.994.371.92
Drew Smyly251349.333.621.12.581.293.753.783.774.071.92
Aroldis Chapman266514.024.250.643.31.12.262.282.542.4622
Zack Wheeler241827.983.650.982.181.384.033.913.924.382.32
Tim Hudson381735.972.780.892.151.3643.943.874.352.12
Jerome Williams321825.882.461.022.391.314.054.054.014.41.91.9
Paul Maholm321446.32.90.882.171.343.853.893.824.191.81.9
Clay Buchholz291447.493.1412.381.323.863.883.874.21.91.9
Wei-Yin Chen281737.172.521.272.851.274.034.134.134.381.61.9
Jose Quintana251737.123.071.092.321.344.044.074.054.391.81.9
Brandon McCarthy301345.491.251.064.41.223.843.783.694.171.91.8
Kenley Jansen266512.983.40.763.821.062.412.42.642.621.81.8
Felix Doubront261448.233.80.972.171.363.913.893.94.251.81.8
Jon Lester301737.413.471.042.131.374.084.064.024.441.81.8
Mike Minor261827.83.071.252.541.324.124.154.174.481.71.8
Jenrry Mejia24738.262.850.632.91.233.163.073.023.431.81.7
Wade Davis281447.843.411.062.31.343.943.973.974.291.71.7
Greg Holland286512.393.440.73.61.12.482.452.592.71.81.7
Chris Archer251827.984.131.021.931.414.144.134.154.51.71.7
Jason Hammel311826.762.91.122.331.334.144.144.084.51.71.7
Dallas Keuchel261636.013.360.871.791.384.064.094.034.421.61.7
Roberto Hernandez331056.142.340.852.621.283.683.693.6541.61.7
Matt Garza301158.372.871.052.921.33.793.673.674.121.91.6
Ervin Santana311537.12.661.112.671.34.053.973.914.41.81.6
Erik Bedard351448.73.551.162.451.3443.9844.351.71.6
Jake Peavy331737.882.631.362.991.284.144.154.114.51.61.6
Mark Buehrle351925.582.791.1821.324.224.454.384.5811.6
Kevin Siegrist248410.274.310.892.381.33.463.493.573.761.61.6
Chris Tillman261927.943.461.222.291.374.224.24.214.591.71.6
Miguel Gonzalez301737.182.541.282.831.314.164.164.144.521.61.6
Tyson Ross27967.963.460.862.31.313.673.693.663.981.51.5
Joe Kelly2614562.940.952.041.364.054.0844.41.51.5
Dan Haren331737.362.851.262.581.324.174.194.164.541.51.5
Glen Perkins316510.492.080.865.051.052.662.662.772.891.51.5
Tyler Skaggs221537.923.391.182.331.344.094.134.154.451.51.5
Danny Duffy251059.493.961.072.41.323.773.813.894.11.51.5
Scott Feldman311736.813.491.011.951.394.194.164.14.561.61.5
Mike Leake261345.392.551.012.111.34.014.174.094.361.21.5
Bartolo Colon411735.451.391.313.911.274.24.194.114.571.51.5
Jason Grilli376511.833.060.93.861.12.722.742.872.961.41.5
Randall Delgado241826.983.491.121.394.244.264.254.611.41.5
Wily Peralta251536.453.740.881.731.434.134.144.094.491.41.5
Jake Westbrook361444.323.130.841.381.384.124.354.244.4711.4
John Danks291256.322.271.162.791.284.014.084.084.361.31.4
Tyler Chatwood241445.673.530.811.611.434.124.134.064.481.41.4
Trevor Rosenthal246511.233.310.783.391.142.82.782.913.051.41.4
Al Alburquerque285512.834.420.632.911.172.62.582.682.821.41.4
Jason Vargas311736.662.641.262.521.324.264.284.274.631.31.3
Ernesto Frieri286512.623.371.013.741.12.842.833.213.081.41.3
Jarrod Parker251736.652.941.172.261.364.264.244.244.641.41.3
Carlos Martinez22747.662.470.923.11.243.563.53.433.871.41.3
Esmil Rogers281256.933.380.992.051.384.064.0644.421.31.3
Dan Straily251638.193.091.372.651.334.254.244.264.621.31.3
Wandy Rodriguez351736.652.91.172.291.384.294.234.164.661.41.3
Jarred Cosart241446.884.660.81.481.484.174.234.164.541.21.3
Andrew Miller295511.393.750.63.031.172.692.632.732.931.31.3
Jake McGee276510.772.880.893.741.122.912.93.043.171.31.3
Sergio Romo31659.942.530.843.931.122.922.93.013.171.31.3
Martin Perez231535.742.921.021.971.384.234.234.214.61.21.2
Kyle Kendrick291445.612.471.122.271.324.194.254.184.561.11.2
Marco Estrada301348.313.381.222.461.344.154.14.24.511.31.2
Zach McAllister261737.452.991.262.491.374.314.214.184.691.51.2
Mark Melancon29657.462.220.593.361.162.952.982.963.211.21.2
Jaime Garcia27586.92.110.783.271.213.353.363.333.641.21.2
Brett Oberholtzer251546.492.031.413.191.284.264.324.254.631.11.2
David Phelps271827.974.41.121.811.464.354.374.334.731.21.2
Taijuan Walker211447.793.661.142.131.394.224.194.294.591.21.2
A.J. Griffin261637.83.171.342.461.354.34.324.374.671.21.2
Fernando Rodney375510.533.790.532.781.192.782.742.863.021.21.2
Tom Koehler281446.492.871.142.261.364.234.224.124.61.21.2
Jonathan Pettibone231356.473.420.981.891.44.24.174.124.561.21.2
Adam Warren261037.593.670.972.071.3743.994.064.351.21.2
Brandon Morrow291447.783.151.242.471.344.244.164.174.611.31.2
J.A. Happ311448.563.821.252.241.384.244.224.224.611.21.2
Edinson Volquez30968.354.020.862.081.43.953.783.764.291.41.2
Kelvin Herrera24559.792.570.743.811.122.822.82.933.061.21.2
Yovani Gallardo281537.194.510.951.61.474.284.334.284.6511.2
Luke Gregerson30659.212.330.883.961.123.033.053.083.291.11.1
Matt Belisle34557.931.470.745.411.092.852.852.863.11.11.1
Sergio Santos306510.332.920.943.531.153.083.093.153.351.11.1
Jim Henderson316510.923.760.842.91.23.093.13.343.351.11.1
Paco Rodriguez235511.023.590.743.071.182.892.872.923.151.11.1
Nick Tepesch25866.992.920.982.391.323.913.883.824.251.11.1
David Huff29937.222.471.22.931.283.9844.064.3311.1
Bobby Parnell29658.562.860.712.991.183.113.123.133.3911.1
Nate Jones28659.523.220.762.951.213.123.113.163.391.11.1
Randy Choate38658.563.730.52.291.283.123.123.183.391.11.1
Ryan Dempster37838.253.511.052.351.313.93.93.914.241.11.1
Carlos Villanueva301127.743.241.182.391.344.144.124.174.51.11.1
Brandon Workman25789.024.130.942.181.363.843.783.814.181.11
Jake Diekman274510.353.580.482.891.182.672.632.732.911.11
Stephen Fife27777.052.920.952.411.323.853.843.764.1811
Danny Farquhar276510.540.762.621.253.153.153.233.4211
Joaquin Benoit365510.693.290.863.251.152.973.013.243.2311
Jered Weaver311927.343.171.372.311.374.454.464.524.8411
Erik Johnson241446.623.341.151.981.394.334.364.294.70.91
Steve Delabar305511.573.570.933.241.1733.023.243.2611
Junichi Tazawa28658.762.110.964.161.133.193.23.333.4711
Jared Burton33659.092.290.973.971.133.23.23.33.4711
Rex Brothers266510.483.880.792.71.253.193.163.213.4711
Seth Maness25555.9920.412.991.23.022.992.963.2811
Jacob Turner231736.293.171.171.991.394.424.44.344.8111
Jose Alvarez25888.153.871.032.111.374.024.024.094.3711
Brandon Maurer231077.253.361.132.151.364.174.24.194.530.91
Neal Cotts34559.862.880.843.431.163.043.043.113.311
Ubaldo Jimenez30968.394.051.032.071.394.094.024.054.451.11
Pedro Strop29559.723.690.622.631.243.043.013.023.3111
Travis Wood271537.062.891.382.441.344.384.444.444.760.81
Josh Beckett34777.752.711.112.861.283.933.843.874.2710.9
Ryan Vogelsong361736.293.481.141.811.434.454.464.44.830.90.9
Bruce Chen371447.132.241.543.191.294.364.444.394.740.80.9
Brad Ziegler34654.942.550.351.941.263.243.33.293.530.90.9
Kevin Correia331924.732.221.192.131.394.494.474.344.8810.9
Kyle Lohse351635.782.51.292.311.364.434.464.384.810.80.9
Steve Cishek28659.313.510.752.661.253.273.243.313.550.90.9
Chad Qualls35656.311.580.743.981.173.273.253.213.560.90.9
Adam Ottavino28559.532.880.783.311.183.113.023.043.3810.9
Jake Arrieta28777.953.641.042.181.363.9743.964.320.90.9
Vinnie Pestano296510.493.31.043.181.193.283.323.413.560.90.9
Nick Vincent27659.413.150.92.991.223.33.323.413.580.90.9
Chris Rusin27866.092.970.962.051.374.084.084.054.440.90.9
Jeanmar Gomez26736.12.810.942.171.333.9643.944.30.80.9
Brandon Kintzler29656.742.750.622.451.263.323.363.363.610.80.9
Charlie Furbush285510.53.560.892.951.213.173.193.313.440.80.9
Aaron Laffey291445.763.391.081.71.414.414.464.364.790.70.8
Bryan Shaw26558.62.750.793.121.213.23.23.233.480.80.8
Will Smith246382.731.132.931.283.883.813.784.220.90.8
Tom Gorzelanny31697.983.391.12.351.313.9744.024.310.80.8
Tommy Hanson271827.933.631.32.191.414.514.374.324.911.20.8
Joe Saunders331824.963.221.121.541.444.524.644.524.910.50.8
David Robertson296510.24.150.792.461.293.373.313.343.660.90.8
Joakim Soria30659.73.90.82.491.293.373.353.433.660.80.8
Bruce Rondon23658.42.890.792.911.243.383.293.353.670.90.8
Burch Smith24549.633.361.192.871.263.753.753.974.080.80.8
Joe Nathan396510.073.371.012.991.223.393.43.513.690.80.8
Robbie Ross25458.032.460.683.261.173.043.073.063.310.80.8
Sean Marshall31359.752.940.633.311.142.752.782.792.990.80.8
Dane de la Rosa31409.593.010.73.181.172.922.933.023.180.80.8
Mike Adams35558.622.480.893.471.163.273.263.293.550.80.8
Ryan Cook27559.362.90.913.231.193.273.263.323.550.80.8
Jonathan Papelbon33659.252.491.083.711.183.413.383.493.710.80.8
Sean Doolittle27559.61.741.215.521.093.273.243.43.560.80.8
Freddy Garcia371446.022.871.172.091.394.454.364.314.840.90.8
Mike Dunn296510.163.251.063.121.213.433.413.473.720.80.8
Joe Thatcher32559.512.910.953.271.23.283.283.413.570.80.8
J.J. Putz37659.13.280.912.781.243.433.443.493.730.70.7
David Hernandez295510.663.011.13.541.173.293.273.413.580.80.7
Edward Mujica30557.160.821.118.781.073.293.333.343.580.70.7
Justin De Fratus26559.33.250.852.861.233.33.293.323.590.70.7
Vance Worley261155.933.211.11.851.424.374.394.294.750.70.7
Tom Wilhelmsen30658.922.950.943.021.243.463.413.493.760.80.7
Tyler Lyons26646.832.881.092.381.3144.063.984.350.70.7
Blake Beavan25935.61.331.44.21.244.264.274.234.640.70.7
Joe Smith30657.743.230.792.41.293.463.543.583.770.60.7
Drew Pomeranz25498.383.570.962.341.333.793.773.784.120.70.7
Brandon Cumpton25585.992.380.972.521.313.953.923.864.290.70.7
Scott Rice32458.233.850.52.141.33.173.233.263.440.70.7
Jimmy Nelson25497.944.480.71.771.423.83.83.834.130.70.7
Charlie Leesman27588.15.710.561.421.533.963.963.954.30.70.7
Bronson Arroyo37965.311.891.322.811.294.314.414.294.680.60.7
Louis Coleman284011.153.350.973.331.163.053.093.343.320.70.7
Aaron Crow27658.763.430.852.561.283.53.473.453.80.70.7
Darren O'Day31659.322.91.073.221.213.513.53.623.810.70.7
Mike Pelfrey301735.793.151.171.841.424.564.54.424.960.80.7
Jordan Walden265510.523.321.053.171.23.383.343.463.680.70.7
Jeremy Hellickson27967.073.331.222.131.384.324.354.384.70.60.7
Barry Zito361826.433.441.271.871.434.584.614.544.980.60.7
Donnie Veal29559.783.90.842.511.283.43.393.43.690.70.7
Casey Fien30459.892.51.073.951.143.233.233.443.510.70.7
Antonio Bastardo286511.263.961.132.841.253.533.53.713.840.70.7
LaTroy Hawkins41656.221.760.863.531.213.533.53.483.840.70.7
Jim Johnson31656.632.80.72.371.293.543.533.493.840.70.7
Andrew Albers28775.51.841.252.991.284.224.254.214.590.60.6
Alex Colome25587.533.690.992.041.384.034.034.114.380.60.6
Josh Lindblom27738.043.541.232.271.364.194.224.234.560.60.6
Tony Watson29558.682.441.063.561.183.443.473.543.740.60.6
Eric Stults341825.522.631.352.11.374.64.654.5550.50.6
Addison Reed25659.352.511.193.731.183.573.533.583.880.70.6
Tim Stauffer32557.983.220.812.481.293.453.523.483.750.60.6
Aaron Loup26456.962.160.753.231.213.293.313.33.570.60.6
Justin Wilson26558.463.290.822.571.273.463.463.483.760.60.6
David Carpenter28409.892.940.953.371.183.193.23.283.470.60.6
Troy Patton28557.761.981.023.921.183.473.463.553.780.60.6
A.J. Ramos275510.423.61.052.891.243.483.463.553.780.60.6
Jeremy Jeffress26309.924.340.422.281.272.892.92.953.140.60.6
Blake Parker29659.923.281.123.031.243.593.563.653.910.60.6
Anthony Bass26397.232.950.92.451.33.723.733.734.050.60.6
Wilton Lopez30406.371.370.794.651.153.213.243.223.490.60.6
Dale Thayer33558.792.750.983.191.233.493.433.513.790.60.6
Johnny Hellweg25675.824.250.681.371.54.184.154.14.550.60.6
Jeremy Hefner28776.472.651.242.441.344.274.284.184.650.60.6
Tyler Thornburg251307.193.961.221.811.444.524.544.54.910.50.6
Craig Stammen304593.420.772.631.263.353.313.333.640.60.6
Alex Torres26559.664.050.882.391.33.523.533.683.820.60.6
Marc Rzepczynski28557.863.590.722.191.313.533.543.493.830.60.6
Taylor Jordan25296.231.920.733.251.243.453.363.373.760.60.6
Kyle Gibson261155.823.6911.581.484.494.434.334.880.60.6
Manny Parra31559.684.080.822.371.323.533.443.453.840.60.6
Brian Flynn24487.694.130.881.861.413.993.993.974.340.50.5
Ross Ohlendorf31647.662.761.312.781.314.24.164.144.570.60.5
Drew Storen26558.022.21.063.651.193.543.543.543.850.50.5
Casey Janssen32658.073.50.92.311.313.653.723.763.970.50.5
Tyler Clippard296510.613.41.273.121.233.653.663.933.970.50.5
Justin Grimm25736.342.991.142.121.384.284.284.194.660.50.5
Cesar Cabral25408.914.940.41.81.393.33.33.283.590.50.5
Jeremy Affeldt35556.973.470.642.011.343.563.583.563.870.50.5
Heath Hembree25459.914.30.782.31.313.413.413.553.710.50.5
Josh Outman29458.843.490.82.531.283.423.43.533.720.50.5
Rafael Betancourt39659.172.251.314.071.183.683.653.724.010.50.5
Matt Lindstrom34557.22.520.872.861.253.593.553.513.90.50.5
Daisuke Matsuzaka331447.963.521.452.261.394.594.554.524.990.60.5
Dan Otero29405.341.360.723.921.193.373.363.283.660.50.5
Ross Wolf31494.541.860.972.441.324.094.063.964.440.50.5
Josh Zeid27458.343.390.792.461.283.473.473.483.770.50.5
Jonathan Broxton30557.813.030.92.581.283.623.633.663.940.50.5
Allen Webster24487.513.451.072.181.374.114.084.114.470.50.5
Brett Cecil27558.473.180.972.661.283.653.643.683.960.50.5
Grant Balfour36659.814.31.012.281.333.743.763.864.070.40.5
Cody Allen25659.743.81.092.561.313.753.733.814.070.50.5
Chris Withrow255510.263.841.112.671.283.663.663.693.970.50.5
Donovan Hand28645.452.781.121.961.374.324.384.354.690.40.5
Shawn Kelley306510.163.721.22.731.283.763.773.864.080.40.5
Hector Noesi27397.12.441.182.911.283.993.994.054.330.40.4
Phil Irwin27297.44.950.451.491.463.713.713.674.030.40.4
Chris Narveson32776.944.111.091.691.464.414.454.464.80.40.4
Chad Jenkins26485.11.421.233.581.264.164.174.034.520.40.4
Chaz Roe27358.953.130.852.861.243.373.343.333.660.50.4
Bryan Morris27407.052.560.792.751.253.473.483.463.780.40.4
Todd Redmond29488.993.491.352.581.334.174.164.24.530.40.4
Phil Coke31407.812.280.953.431.223.483.453.53.790.40.4
Neil Wagner30408.153.430.772.371.293.493.493.583.80.40.4
Jesse Chavez30458.843.140.992.821.263.583.563.653.890.40.4
Huston Street30658.72.921.212.981.253.793.843.914.120.40.4
Jesse Crain324010.774.1412.61.283.513.483.623.810.40.4
Zach Britton26486.023.730.821.611.454.214.154.084.570.40.4
Jeremy Guthrie351635.062.761.31.831.434.674.734.615.080.30.4
Luke Hochevar30458.542.831.063.011.223.613.643.73.920.40.4
Erik Davis27308.443.850.62.191.33.33.333.313.590.40.4
Santiago Casilla33657.693.60.882.141.353.823.813.84.150.40.4
Joel Peralta386510.063.431.292.931.263.823.824.024.150.40.4
Aaron Harang36966.993.121.372.241.384.554.524.474.940.40.4
Cory Gearrin28308.363.410.692.451.273.323.333.323.610.40.4
Sean Burnett31457.693.920.691.961.363.633.653.623.940.40.4
Jordan Lyles23486.063.061.051.981.394.234.244.164.60.40.4
Javier Lopez36258.163.150.632.591.243.163.23.213.440.40.4
Yordano Ventura23677.093.641.211.951.414.414.444.34.80.40.4
Yoervis Medina25558.624.50.771.921.393.753.753.744.080.40.4
Carlos Marmol313011.7150.872.341.33.353.373.423.650.40.4
Ryan Webb28456.622.730.752.421.323.653.573.563.970.40.4
Mike Fiers29397.553.541.112.131.354.124.164.214.480.40.4
Brian Matusz27558.743.051.12.861.283.763.713.834.090.40.4
Sam LeCure30459.174.010.942.291.333.663.713.713.980.30.4
Tim Collins24559.924.4112.251.353.773.753.934.10.40.4
Stephen Pryor24459.513.491.092.731.273.683.683.7840.40.4
Hector Rondon26557.773.250.972.391.313.793.823.94.120.30.4
Tanner Scheppers27557.012.391.032.931.263.793.783.774.120.40.4
Brad Boxberger264010.994.940.952.231.363.633.623.813.950.30.3
Luis Perez29258.653.110.762.781.243.283.273.33.570.30.3
Jeff Locke26387.064.160.911.71.464.194.194.134.550.30.3
Will Harris29308.613.060.912.811.253.473.473.53.770.30.3
Liam Hendriks25486.392.641.252.421.354.334.314.284.710.30.3
Mike Kickham25197.643.380.752.261.323.63.573.563.910.30.3
Brandon League31456.032.640.732.281.323.743.643.624.070.40.3
Oliver Perez322010.852.691.124.041.123.153.163.263.420.30.3
Tommy Hunter27656.271.511.244.141.23.913.963.924.250.30.3
Brian Duensing31556.942.421.042.871.293.843.813.84.180.30.3
Lucas Harrell29586.054.350.891.391.494.444.444.354.830.30.3
Nick Hagadone28459.973.681.152.711.293.753.733.814.080.30.3
Brandon Gomes293510.873.421.273.181.223.623.623.83.930.30.3
Rafael Soriano34658.472.991.182.841.293.913.873.94.260.30.3
Jason Frasor36409.754.10.982.381.323.713.673.74.030.30.3
Tommy Milone27486.912.791.362.481.354.384.414.374.760.30.3
Jake Petricka26256.593.40.491.941.323.43.433.443.70.30.3
Collin McHugh27295.952.251.12.641.34.084.074.124.430.30.3
Dylan Axelrod281446.353.611.271.761.474.714.674.615.120.40.3
Andre Rienzo261366.324.151.151.521.514.74.74.575.110.30.3
Scott Diamond27484.522.161.132.091.364.394.44.264.770.30.3
Michael Roth24297.14.10.91.731.424.114.144.14.460.30.3
Chris Perez29458.393.041.12.761.283.83.783.814.130.30.3
Evan Reed28456.463.030.812.131.333.83.83.794.130.30.3
Lucas Luetge27407.343.40.822.161.343.743.733.744.070.30.3
James Russell28658.032.251.333.571.243.943.944.044.290.30.3
Yusmeiro Petit29198.372.541.223.31.233.753.793.824.080.30.3
Chad Bettis25296.713.091.082.171.364.124.154.054.480.30.3
T.J. McFarland25406.943.180.792.181.343.763.73.664.090.30.3
Scott Baker321827.132.171.753.281.324.764.724.635.170.40.3
Daniel Webb24307.573.80.671.991.353.613.613.573.920.30.3
Blake Wood28408.314.380.761.91.393.783.763.774.110.30.3
Alfredo Simon33407.242.711.022.671.283.783.823.824.110.20.3
George Kontos29308.352.451.113.41.213.623.623.63.940.30.3
Rob Scahill27355.651.670.943.381.233.723.723.724.040.30.3
Gonzalez Germen26658.693.661.132.381.343.973.974.044.320.30.3
Joe Ortiz23306.552.350.92.791.253.653.683.73.960.20.3
Greg Burke31307.673.440.752.231.333.673.583.623.990.30.2
Steven Ames26158.083.610.472.241.283.133.133.153.410.20.2
Jake Dunning25256.993.850.561.811.363.573.63.613.880.20.2
Robbie Erlin23386.773.271.222.071.384.384.414.324.760.20.2
Brian Wilson32658.655.290.751.641.484.013.984.044.350.30.2
Jake Odorizzi24487.453.321.392.251.384.54.514.414.890.20.2
Ethan Martin25688.634.61.341.871.464.614.614.595.010.20.2
Kevin Slowey30396.632.11.493.161.34.424.434.334.80.20.2
Jared Hughes28306.33.210.691.961.343.723.723.744.050.20.2
Ross Detwiler28295.382.31.132.341.344.284.264.174.650.20.2
Preston Claiborne26557.663.261.062.351.333.973.974.044.320.20.2
Tom Layne29458.745.090.761.721.463.923.93.864.270.20.2
Javy Guerra28208.623.630.82.371.33.523.513.583.830.20.2
Josh Collmenter28458.522.931.262.911.273.933.964.044.280.20.2
Chad Billingsley29196.973.361.042.071.354.084.134.14.430.20.2
Logan Ondrusek29308.183.011.052.711.293.793.763.824.120.20.2
Chang-Yong Lim38208.595.660.381.521.483.573.573.63.880.20.2
B.J. Rosenberg28408.693.561.112.441.323.913.914.034.260.20.2
Cory Burns26357.93.061.062.581.33.883.863.934.210.20.2
John Gast25296.373.810.991.671.464.374.344.324.750.20.2
Franklin Morales28359.083.831.12.371.343.883.893.984.220.20.2
Tyler Cloyd271446.353.391.41.881.444.774.794.715.190.10.2
Matt Shoemaker27198.394.820.961.741.454.154.184.174.510.20.2
J.P. Howell31358.174.350.861.881.413.93.933.894.240.20.2
Luis Avilan24656.693.80.861.761.424.074.074.054.430.20.2
Jairo Asencio31358.063.612.241.353.923.913.94.260.20.2
Cesar Ramos30456.832.921.042.341.3344.013.994.350.20.2
Carter Capps23109.62.990.813.211.183.133.093.263.40.20.2
Luis Garcia27308.114.560.791.781.433.893.923.94.220.10.2
Boone Logan291010.933.560.923.071.213.173.153.213.440.20.2
Alex Sanabia25296.32.831.312.231.364.454.494.434.840.10.2
Steve Johnson262010.94.641.072.351.343.73.723.964.030.10.2
Enny Romero23356.44.820.91.331.554.544.544.544.930.10.1
Victor Marte33157.333.340.712.21.313.553.563.563.860.10.1
Rich Hill341011.274.490.822.511.273.243.233.323.520.10.1
Anthony Varvaro29456.833.161.032.161.354.054.074.074.40.10.1
Luke Putkonen28357.583.570.962.121.373.983.953.944.330.20.1
Phillippe Aumont25108.523.880.612.191.33.313.343.363.590.10.1
Xavier Cedeno27258.063.860.912.091.373.883.863.784.210.10.1
Francisco Rodriguez32159.243.480.972.661.293.623.563.583.940.10.1
Zach Putnam26107.452.490.782.991.223.363.363.343.650.10.1
Darin Downs29208.833.8412.31.343.833.823.814.160.10.1
Fernando Salas29358.542.881.312.961.284.024.014.094.370.10.1
Mitchell Boggs30256.873.460.841.981.363.923.93.854.260.10.1
Drake Britton25157.323.090.862.371.313.713.713.694.030.10.1
Wesley Wright29108.573.450.82.491.273.443.453.43.740.10.1
Dustin McGowan32358.614.151.052.071.384.034.044.124.380.10.1
Alfredo Figaro29456.312.731.042.311.344.14.074.044.460.10.1
Kyle Farnsworth38107.372.260.933.261.223.523.513.523.830.10.1
Alberto Cabrera25409.425.370.931.751.474.094.14.144.440.10.1
Scott Barnes26159.233.911.032.361.333.783.793.884.110.10.1
Matt Thornton37107.312.610.882.81.243.553.563.523.860.10.1
Octavio Dotel40108.742.71.063.231.223.553.543.623.860.10.1
Vin Mazzaro27456.092.870.992.121.364.124.094.034.470.10.1
Jose Cisnero25308.13.861.012.11.384.0344.134.380.10.1
Burke Badenhop31405.442.910.911.871.384.094.124.024.450.10.1
Jamey Wright39107.683.420.712.251.333.583.513.53.890.10.1
Scott Downs38106.873.990.531.721.393.593.623.593.910.10.1
John Axford31109.414.340.832.171.343.613.613.623.920.10.1
Luis Ayala36106.552.490.862.631.263.623.673.583.930.10.1
Eric O'Flaherty29106.783.030.762.241.323.663.663.623.980.10.1
Michael Kirkman27158.733.631.082.411.333.873.883.884.210.10.1
David Aardsma32109.493.861.012.461.33.683.683.8140.10.1
Josh Stinson26307.223.411.032.121.374.084.084.144.430.10.1
Kyuji Fujikawa33108.644.040.862.141.343.693.723.754.010.10.1
Matt Magill24198.645.161.141.671.534.564.54.694.960.10.1
Kris Johnson29207.293.990.861.831.41443.994.350.10.1
Matt Daley32108.954.070.912.21.343.733.733.814.060.10.1
Nick Maronde24158.794.390.9421.393.923.923.994.260.10.1
Chance Ruffin25109.444.260.962.221.353.763.763.824.080.10.1
Kameron Loe32105.972.240.92.661.283.783.773.74.110.10.1
Dellin Betances26359.445.830.861.621.524.144.144.154.50.10.1
Rob Wooten28556.252.341.212.671.314.24.24.14.560.10.1
Brayan Villarreal271010.474.431.112.371.343.823.813.914.150.10.1
Brad Brach28159.44.441.052.121.383.983.964.014.320.10.1
Frank Francisco34109.053.71.052.441.323.833.793.824.160.10.1
Anthony Swarzak28556.282.491.212.521.334.24.234.184.5700.1
Michael Kohn28559.293.521.412.641.334.24.24.44.570.10.1
Mickey Storey28109.873.151.343.131.253.863.843.964.20.10.1
Zach Phillips27308.293.741.162.221.374.144.134.084.50.10.1
Jose Veras33109.484.371.022.171.363.893.883.974.220.10.1
Zeke Spruill24196.953.731.321.871.454.654.654.535.060.10.1
Andrew Bailey301010.073.611.282.791.283.893.873.944.230.10.1
Fernando Abad28108.032.81.142.861.293.93.863.864.230.10.1
Matt Albers31106.143.50.721.751.393.893.893.894.230.10.1
Chia-Jen Lo28558.033.831.132.11.44.214.184.234.580.10
Darren Oliver43107.622.941.072.61.313.923.883.784.260.10
Ryan Reid29156.843.780.861.811.414.044.044.014.3900
Daniel Bard29158.194.180.961.961.44.044.014.024.40.10
Maikel Cleto251010.255.470.971.871.45443.924.3500
Raul Valdes36109.353.531.32.651.314.024.044.074.3600
Brad Lincoln29207.82.971.282.621.314.154.164.154.5100
Thad Weber29105.963.820.71.561.444.034.013.964.3800
Ian Krol23107.642.641.272.91.284.034.064.024.3900
Bobby LaFromboise28257.733.811.12.031.394.194.194.134.5500
Michael Gonzalez36109.54.611.062.061.414.0644.064.4200
Matt Guerrier35107.452.841.192.631.314.084.074.14.4300
Joel Hanrahan32109.313.951.212.361.354.084.054.14.4300
Brad Peacock26967.64.191.431.821.484.864.824.755.280.10
Jose De La Torre28109.685.320.981.821.464.094.094.114.4500
Tim Byrdak40109.774.491.22.181.384.114.114.174.4700
Ronald Belisario3117.762.490.463.121.172.82.822.853.0500
J.J. Hoover26659.354.151.32.251.394.264.234.394.6300
Joe Paterson28257.244.190.951.731.464.224.214.254.5900
Joe Savery28356.623.6811.81.424.244.254.194.6100
John Lannan29105.813.070.971.891.394.144.184.074.500
Hiram Burgos26196.823.261.492.091.434.84.774.715.2200
J.C. Ramirez25107.012.961.132.361.354.144.114.264.5100
Chris Leroux3018.93.710.552.41.273.133.113.083.400
Shawn Camp38105.552.141.142.591.324.174.184.144.5300
Cristhian Martinez3217.512.230.783.371.23.263.263.323.5400
Juan Perez35110.944.80.722.281.323.273.263.283.5600
Zach Duke31105.442.710.982.011.364.174.164.154.5400
Hisanori Takahashi39108.553.721.252.31.374.184.24.194.5400
Mariano Rivera4417.592.010.913.771.173.33.353.443.5900
Roy Oswalt3617.912.10.963.771.193.413.383.433.7100
Cody Eppley2816.843.730.461.831.343.433.453.453.7300
Robert Coello29111.263.971.092.841.243.443.443.693.7400
Rhiner Cruz27257.313.451.162.121.384.254.254.374.6200
Tyler Robertson2619.654.070.872.371.313.523.523.573.8300
Sandy Rosario2816.32.210.822.851.253.573.573.583.8800
Jeremy Horst28108.363.331.312.511.344.214.24.214.5800
Matt Reynolds2918.322.871.022.891.253.623.633.63.9400
Heath Bell3618.393.350.962.511.293.673.693.663.9900
Joba Chamberlain2818.423.420.932.461.33.673.663.653.9900
Sam Freeman27408.433.841.232.21.394.274.244.154.6400
Travis Blackley3117.63.010.992.531.33.753.83.884.0800
Jose Contreras4218.374.980.641.681.443.763.773.84.0900
Pat Neshek3318.762.581.253.41.223.773.783.954.0900
Hector Ambriz3017.993.571.032.241.343.943.963.914.2800
Chad Gaudin3118.283.341.112.481.333.943.933.944.2800
Andy Pettitte4216.732.761.012.441.323.953.943.864.300
Ricky Romero2916.983.810.891.831.393.954.0644.300
Neftali Feliz26659.294.211.312.211.394.274.284.324.6500
Henry Rodriguez27108.725.090.951.721.484.254.194.24.6200
Jon Rauch35107.162.821.282.541.324.254.254.214.6200
Brian Omogrosso3018.313.451.12.411.333.973.943.974.3100
Eduardo Sanchez25110.374.351.242.381.3543.994.164.3500
Edgmer Escalona2717.52.271.293.31.254.014.014.074.3600
Ramon Troncoso3116.653.360.951.981.384.084.074.054.4300
Ted Lilly3817.432.191.313.41.254.084.024.014.4300
Chris Resop3116.732.771.082.431.334.084.044.034.4400
Duane Below2816.522.611.112.51.324.094.084.084.4400
Scott Atchison3815.662.561.032.211.334.114.144.064.4700
Justin Germano3116.12.771.072.21.354.154.164.174.5100
Shaun Marcum3217.752.981.282.61.324.154.174.134.5100
Stolmy Pimentel24257.723.381.262.281.364.284.284.234.6500
Alfredo Aceves3117.163.041.172.361.344.174.164.164.5300
Josh Roenicke3117.413.321.162.231.354.164.194.184.5300
Clayton Richard3014.592.051.052.231.334.184.234.124.5400
Ramon Ramirez3218.113.931.082.061.44.194.124.174.5600
Jose Mijares2917.943.621.182.191.374.24.24.24.5700
Philip Humber3116.852.461.212.781.314.214.14.074.5800
Clayton Mortensen2917.323.891.051.881.414.224.244.244.5900
Juan Gutierrez30107.373.21.132.31.44.284.124.14.6500
Mike Zagurski31108.074.940.941.631.494.284.274.234.6500
John Maine3316.954.160.931.671.454.244.244.214.6100
Jose Valverde3618.173.071.312.661.334.244.154.114.6100
Hideki Okajima3817.144.660.861.531.494.254.264.254.6200
Phil Hughes2817.682.491.43.091.314.254.24.234.6200
Jeff Manship2915.963.121.031.911.44.284.264.244.6500
Tony Sipp3019.533.931.432.421.364.34.314.364.6700
Chris Volstad2715.312.941.021.811.394.354.324.244.7300
Wade LeBlanc2916.462.741.292.361.364.364.44.394.7400
Manny Corpas3115.863.041.121.931.394.374.384.364.7500
James McDonald2917.693.691.242.091.394.384.374.334.7600
Jonathan Sanchez3118.734.721.151.851.474.384.354.334.7600
Mark Lowe3118.113.871.262.11.414.384.364.344.7600
Chris Bootcheck3517.465.590.791.331.574.44.44.344.7800
Brooks Raley26307.124.1311.721.454.294.294.274.6600
Pedro Feliciano37107.934.061.121.961.424.294.264.34.6700
Michael Bowden2717.563.471.332.181.384.434.454.524.8100
Alex Burnett2616.142.871.232.141.394.454.424.324.8300
Jon Garland3414.93.041.081.611.424.444.534.444.8300
Craig Breslow33456.683.271.152.041.394.294.324.284.6600
Pedro Beato2716.993.131.352.231.384.474.494.444.8600
Brandon Lyon3416.723.371.241.991.414.494.484.454.8800
Kevin Jepsen29557.523.471.182.161.384.294.254.264.6600
Derek Lowe4114.863.640.851.341.544.534.424.344.9200
Luis Mendoza3015.073.321.061.531.454.524.564.434.9200
Edgar Gonzalez3115.772.741.292.111.384.554.554.524.9500
Alex Wilson2716.993.851.281.821.444.574.634.524.9700
Jason Marquis3515.314.050.921.311.514.584.564.54.9800
Brett Myers3315.062.321.272.181.374.594.544.424.9900
Charles Brewer2616.214.381.011.421.524.64.64.52500
Chien-Ming Wang3413.152.590.981.221.444.64.634.52500
Josh Wall2717.123.91.311.831.464.664.654.55.0700
Rubby de la Rosa25307.83.591.212.171.384.34.274.294.6700
Chad Durbin36107.213.841.111.881.424.334.344.374.700
Yunesky Maya3215.383.631.131.481.494.714.74.575.1200
Eury De la Rosa2418.783.821.622.31.414.724.724.565.1300
Shairon Martis2717.484.161.361.81.484.744.744.675.1500
Guillermo Moscoso3018.463.61.662.351.44.784.774.775.1900
Ramon Ortiz4115.452.981.41.831.434.834.864.845.2500
Sean O'Sullivan2615.183.161.311.641.474.844.854.735.2600
Cole DeVries2916.783.011.622.251.414.894.894.875.3100
Joe Martinez3116.182.781.622.221.414.954.954.755.3800
Kyle McClellan30153.151.371.591.484.974.974.895.400
Chris Dwyer26297.25.131.231.41.574.94.934.825.3300
Zach Miner32107.184.660.931.541.54.354.354.354.7300
Peter Moylan3514.53.41.281.321.515.015.035.065.4500
Jerry Blevins30558.43.681.312.281.374.34.314.44.6700
David Carpenter2616.014.91.261.231.625.195.175.045.6400
Buddy Boshers26107.74.950.971.551.514.374.44.364.7500
Simon Castro2617.384.461.611.651.545.235.235.265.6800
Jair Jurrjens2814.823.061.591.571.55.285.35.195.7400
Barry Enright2815.663.921.541.441.565.335.335.155.7900
Billy Buckner3015.424.071.521.331.585.45.45.345.8700
Dave Bush3415.843.191.791.831.495.45.45.285.8700
Chris Hatcher29357.593.771.162.011.44.314.34.254.6900
Michael Tonkin24356.943.271.162.121.394.314.284.194.6900
Daniel Stange2817.115.131.661.391.645.585.585.446.0600
Pedro Villarreal2616.463.112.042.081.485.65.65.46.0900
Rafael Dolis26106.214.330.891.441.514.414.44.374.7900
Mauricio Robles25258.214.811.041.711.484.344.344.44.7100
Sean Henn3317.096.221.481.141.745.75.75.556.1900
P.J. Walters29106.253.041.212.061.394.434.434.344.8100
Zach Clark3017.135.61.841.271.71665.936.5200
Justin Freeman2715.974.062.111.471.626.126.125.986.6500
Dan Jennings27457.154.11.041.741.444.334.344.294.700
Kevin Gregg36108.094.891.11.661.54.484.484.514.8700
Cory Rasmus26108.293.751.432.211.44.524.524.614.9100
David Purcey32158.554.511.251.91.454.474.474.444.8600
Pedro Figueroa28207.734.61.071.681.494.444.424.44.8200
Josh Edgin27308.353.691.352.261.384.394.384.254.7700
Ryan Pressly25306.393.251.181.971.394.44.434.324.78-0.10
Francisley Bueno33304.641.931.222.411.334.44.434.394.79-0.10
Miles Mikolas25106.693.781.281.771.454.664.684.595.0700
Ryan Mattheus30405.113.420.891.51.464.384.344.254.7600
Michael Stutes27108.163.881.472.11.434.684.664.625.0900
Onelki Garcia24308.476.450.761.311.624.414.414.354.800
Everett Teaford30256.773.111.292.181.394.444.444.364.8300
Jorge De Leon26107.053.851.311.831.474.74.674.75.110-0.1
Ryan Brasier26106.93.671.41.881.454.774.774.825.18-0.1-0.1
Evan Scribner28357.172.721.412.631.344.424.44.294.81-0.1-0.1
Eric Surkamp26105.933.861.731.541.565.525.525.436-0.1-0.1
Jim Miller32258.53.841.432.211.44.534.514.484.93-0.1-0.1
Michael Blazek25258.033.961.352.031.434.544.544.544.93-0.1-0.1
Caleb Thielbar27408.173.061.512.671.344.444.444.584.83-0.1-0.1
Jeremy Bonderman31105.593.791.31.481.534.964.964.865.39-0.1-0.1
C.C. Lee27108.284.831.521.711.535.015.015.115.45-0.1-0.1
Cesar Jimenez29157.624.31.371.771.484.774.774.765.18-0.1-0.1
Edgar Olmos24106.074.231.321.431.555.055.024.955.49-0.1-0.1
Kyle Drabek26207.125.760.911.241.624.654.74.645.06-0.1-0.1
Vic Black26557.573.011.422.511.354.434.434.444.81-0.1-0.1
Josh Tomlin29355.361.831.432.941.324.514.534.514.9-0.1-0.1
Matt Langwell28407.334.261.131.721.474.484.484.524.87-0.1-0.1
Preston Guilmet26105.83.91.41.491.545.125.095.065.56-0.1-0.1
Josh Lueke29408.453.851.412.191.44.54.494.54.89-0.1-0.1
Sam Dyson26404.153.780.781.11.534.534.524.414.93-0.1-0.1
Jose Ortega25558.144.611.171.761.474.474.474.454.86-0.1-0.1
Curtis Partch27257.924.621.291.711.54.734.74.725.14-0.1-0.1
Arquimedes Caminero27258.173.271.662.51.394.764.734.845.17-0.1-0.1
Trevor Bauer231058.045.961.191.351.645.014.984.895.44-0.1-0.2
Greg Reynolds28924.82.751.481.751.455.025.034.875.46-0.2-0.2
Sean Nolin24485.643.991.411.411.555.175.175.055.62-0.2-0.2
Pedro Hernandez25204.922.831.431.741.464.984.964.885.41-0.2-0.2
Brad Hand24686.684.531.421.471.575.125.145.15.56-0.2-0.2
David Martinez26155.313.721.571.431.555.385.385.255.85-0.2-0.2
Donnie Joseph26208.475.481.461.551.595.15.14.945.54-0.2-0.2
Brett Marshall24306.584.831.141.361.574.854.854.845.27-0.2-0.2
Josh Fields28658.763.921.482.241.44.554.554.554.95-0.2-0.2
Duke Welker28107.935.732.151.381.726.36.36.156.85-0.2-0.2
Jose Dominguez23406.424.221.211.521.524.784.784.725.19-0.2-0.2
Kevin Chapman26557.364.541.211.621.514.684.684.645.08-0.3-0.3
Keith Butler25257.834.671.671.681.555.285.285.325.74-0.3-0.3
Vidal Nuno26585.613.441.641.631.515.325.325.235.78-0.3-0.3
Nick Christiani26206.214.281.751.451.595.635.635.466.12-0.3-0.3
David Holmberg22386.714.991.661.351.645.615.615.536.1-0.3-0.3
Jeurys Familia24557.425.820.981.281.624.764.764.85.17-0.3-0.3
Michael Belfiore25257.125.321.611.341.655.585.585.56.06-0.4-0.4
Robert Carson25405.662.481.682.281.425.075.054.885.51-0.4-0.4
Paul Clemens26935.583.041.671.841.465.235.235.175.69-0.4-0.4
Wilmer Font24258.17.251.831.121.856.316.316.256.86-0.5-0.5
Zac Rosscup26258.356.172.111.351.756.346.316.236.89-0.5-0.5
Deunte Heath28457.55.771.591.31.695.625.615.626.11-0.7-0.7
Bird Seed: Tanaka Saga Continues, Coaching Change, Gibbons, Jays "in the lead" For Top Pitchers
Offseason Power Rankings - Jan 2

Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

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3 Comments

  1. This is interesting, but I think it’s too conservative. You have no starters under 3.00 FIP or ERA, but there were 9 qualified pitchers under 3 FIP and 12 under 3 ERA in 2013 – and I can almost guarantee you that at least a few pitchers will get under 3 ERA this year. Chris Sale has your highest WAR with 4.8 but that would only be good for 11th in the MLB this past year. I think you may be regressing a little too much for very good pitchers. Someone like Kershaw, who hasn’t had an ERA above 3.00 since his rookie year six years ago and will be 26 this year, shouldn’t be projected to suddenly post an ERA 1.32 higher than last year (although Steamer does agree with you, so I guess that’s not a ridiculous prediction).

    Same with relievers – you have none projected for under 2.00 ERA, but there were 14 qualified relievers last year who did that. I understand that being conservative is generally better than being very aggressive in making projections but the best players per your projections should be (maybe almost) as good as the best players in real life. It’s the same problem I have with Steamer (and to a slightly lesser extent Oliver) – take a look at the Steamer projections and you’ll find similar conservatism. ZiPS, I think, does a better job than either of them.

    This looks like a good start, and I have no doubt that it will be at least pretty accurate, but I think there is room for improvement.

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    • While I agree with you to some extent, the regression amounts that Steamer and I use, yield the lowest root mean square error. These are the “true talent” of the pitchers. In real life there are going to be good starters who will also be lucky in some shape or form or experience breakouts, and these will be the guys with the sub 3 (or 2 with relievers) ERAs. It is impossible to predict who get’s that BABIP or HR/FB luck going into the season. As for lower WAR totals, it is mainly due to 192 IP being the max IP projected, when in reality some pitchers pitch more. Again this is to minimize root mean square error, and there will be some pitchers “lucky” enough to not get injured and pitch over 200 innings.

      Any other questions or concerns, feel free to leave a comment.

      Post a Reply
  2. Your prediction for ra dickey is a lot more optimistic than others I’ve seen, but the fact that you consider defensive numbers and pitch fx data probably represents his skill set a lot better.

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