2014 CC (Chris Carruthers) Player Projections

Previously, I made my pitcher projections available to the public that used only pitch level data. Now it’s time for the next step. Some projections that can hopefully rival those of the current publicly available systems. I have projected both hitters and pitchers this time around.

Pitchers:

– Uses a combination of actual results and pitch level and batted ball peripherals
– Attempts to (kind of) project IP
– Uses up to 10 years of data
– Uses park, league, season, and other factors
– Has an aging system
– Only projects players who have appeared in the MLB at some point
– Some pitcher defense included

Hitters:

– Uses a combination of actual results and batted ball peripherals, with some pitch level for walk and K rates
– Credit to Steamer/Fangraphs for PA projections
– Uses up to 10 years of data
– Projects almost everything a hitter can do
– Only projects hitters on MLB numbers and only players with 100+ PA

HERE ARE THE PROJECTIONS

There are two tabs on the sheet for hitters and pitchers.

Couple of notes:

– wRD+ for hitters means “weighted Run Differential Plus” and includes defense and base running into wRC+
– Saves and holds are not projected for pitchers as they are due to role (which can fluctuate)
– Pitchers have a “Real ERA” and ‘Vac ERA”. The real ERA is what is expected to occur in their park and league, while the vac ERA would be their ERA in a context neutral environment. Vac ERA (or FIP) should be used for comparison.

Here is a quick depth chart of the Blue Jays:

Pos, Player, WAR

C Dioner Navarro 1.9
1B Edwin Encarnacion 3.9
2B Ryan Goins 0.3
SS Jose Reyes 3.6
3B Brett Lawrie 2.1
LF Melky Cabrera 1.5
CF Colby Rasmus 2.3
RF Jose Bautista 4.3
DH Adam Lind 1.4

C Erik Kratz 1.3
IF Maicer Izturis 0.9
UTIL Munenori Kawasaki 0.5
OF Anthony Gose 0.0
OF/DH Moises Sierra 0.0

SP R.A. Dickey 2.9
SP Mark Buehrle 2.2
SP Brandon Morrow 1.4
SP Esmil Rogers 0.7
SP J.A. Happ 0.2

SP Todd Redmond 0.3
SP Sean Nolin 0.1
SP Kyle Drabek -0.1

CL Casey Janssen 0.2
SU Sergio Santos 1.0
SU Steve Delabar 0.7
RP Brett Cecil 0.1
RP Aaron Loup 0.1
RP Jeremy Jeffress 0.2
RP Neil Wagner 0.1
RP Luis Perez 0.1

Enjoy the projections! I’m excited to see how well they do at year’s end!

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Author: Chris Carruthers

Chris has been a baseball (and Jays) fan for 15 years. He has also played since the age of 6, working his way through Little League and Babe Ruth Baseball as a catcher and first baseman. He got interested in sabermetrics after viewing the movie Moneyball. His continuous self-learning in sabermetrics and advanced stats is driven by his engineering background and love for numbers. Chris's go-to website is FanGraphs, where he has had a few previous community submissions. Chris also enjoys music and plays guitar in his sparse spare time from his studies. He also follows hockey and his favourite team, the Calgary Flames. Follow Chris on Twitter @CCBreakingBlue.

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