Analyzing Blue Jays Pitchers with FRIAS
Mar28

Analyzing Blue Jays Pitchers with FRIAS

Two weeks ago, I published a simple way to guess a pitcher’s defense-independent numbers in a season by only using the previous year’s peripherals. Using a readily-available set of statistics, K%, BB% and HR% can be projected and converted to a FIP estimate. The method is meant to describe what a season says about a pitcher’s skill level going forward, and is dubbed FRIAS. It’s not a comprehensive projection...

Read More
The Count’s Ramifications on Pitch Outcome Value
Mar23

The Count’s Ramifications on Pitch Outcome Value

Yesterday, I made two posts that investigated the relationship between the outcomes of plate appearances and the values of the pitches that comprise them. The first detailed a game score variant that is based on run values I calculated for pitch outcomes and the second went into more depth on the meaning of swinging strikes compared to called and fouled strikes. Tom Tango suggested that I integrate the count into my analysis. I was...

Read More
Breaking Down the Fascinating Diamondbacks Rotation Battle
Mar17

Breaking Down the Fascinating Diamondbacks Rotation Battle

Most teams go to Spring Training with a roster battle or two to sort out. They need to pick a fifth starter, have a couple out-of-options pitchers trying to latch onto a middle relief role and need to decide on a utility infielder between three veterans. The 2015 Arizona Diamondbacks are not most teams. Their new Dave Stewart-led front office spent the offseason acquiring back-end starters by the truckload. Jeremy Hellickson, Allen...

Read More
FRIAS Case Study: Ervin Santana
Mar15

FRIAS Case Study: Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana’s career has taken a very strange path (but isn’t that true of most pitchers?). An amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Santana was regarded as a decent prospect coming up through the Angels system and broke in during 2005. After throwing some below-average bulk innings from 2005-2007 (xFIP-‘s of 109, 107, 106), he posted a huge 2008 season that was highly regarded from all angles: a 3.49...

Read More
Recapping an Insane Trade Deadline
Aug04

Recapping an Insane Trade Deadline

At 9:46 AM last Thursday, I was soundly asleep, being productive with my vacation time. Unfortunately, I managed to sleep through one of the bigger trades in recent memory. It came as no surprise to see Jon Lester dealt on Thursday – after all, Lester rumors had been swirling for weeks and it was trade deadline day. However, the return was extremely shocking: Yoenis Cespedes, who some consider the heart of the Athletics, and the...

Read More
Bird Seed: Burnett Narrows Options, Freeman Signs Huge Deal, Several Jays Announcements
Feb10

Bird Seed: Burnett Narrows Options, Freeman Signs Huge Deal, Several Jays Announcements

Bird Seed is your regular recap of recent baseball happenings, information, rumours, and how it all affects the Blue Jays. Merry Monday! Yeah, yeah, I hate it too. We begin with possibly the best pitcher on the market. A.J. Burnett, coming off of two seasons in which he accumulated 7.0 fWAR with the Pirates, has reportedly begun to narrow down his market. According to this tweet from Roch Kubatko of MASNsports, the outlook on the...

Read More